Still think gold and oil aren't being manipulated? You're looking more foolish by the day Mish. Gold down 25.00 overnight and oil down 8.50?
Only the scumbags in Washington and Wall Street could orchestrate these attacks where horrible news is turned suddenly into good news with the markets rigged to scam the public psychology in advance of the election. You can now see the desperation.
Comments on The Oil Drum:
" Kinetic Analysis Corporation estimates the impact of Hurricane Gustav on Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.
Kinetic Analysis Corporation (KAC) is forecasting a shortfall of 17 million barrels of oil (MMBBL) for the month of September, based on an expected loss of 40% of normal Gulf of Mexico Production due to Hurricane Gustav. The Gulf of Mexico normally produces 33.6 MMBBL of Oil out of 155 MMBBL produced domestically. Only 138 MMBBL are expected to be produced in September. With imports averaging 300 MMBBL per month, and refining usage at 458 MMBBL, approximately 20 MMBBL would have to be tapped from stocks during the month of September to maintain current usage levels.
We expect production to be back up to to 95% by the end of the year. We expect a long-term production loss of approximately 3%, since Gustav's swath went through some areas that Ivan, Katrina, and Rita missed, and older, less productive wells that suffered damage will probably not be restored to operation.
The LOOP terminal, source of 25% of US oil imports and the only VLCC class supertanker port on the US East Coast, was directly in the path of the storm. In addition to damage to the offshore port itself, the connection pipelines to shore are also vulnerable to storm damage. Our baseline estimate is 10-14 days downtime for the port itself. As there is some potential for undersea slumping and scour, pipeline disruption is possible and could further aggravate supply issues.
For refineries and distribution, mainly short-term disruption is expected due to precautionary shutdowns; no long term impacts are expected unless there is significant disruption of the pipelines. Flood-related delays in repair and restoration due to high rainfall rates are possible if the storm lingers in the impact area.
Storm total damage (residential, commercial, and infrastructure) is estimated at $35-40 Billion. "
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"Yes, the models say that 40% of GOM oil will be offline for 30 days, and 30% of GOM NG for will be offline for 30 days.
If that's true how you explain that the news are in jubilation that the price is sliding because Gustav is underperforming.
That's the word they used: underperforming, the media is disappointed by the Mother Gaia.
Quelle bêtise!
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"We won't have a rational 'explanation' of why oil continues to sell off from $140+ until months after the fact, just like we didn't have an explanation why it went from $90 to $140+ earlier this year."
Reply
Do you think that some (big) traders are trying to keep as low as possible the price of oil until US elections in November? Can be that someone or some group have the means to do that ?
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Port Fourchon got 5 FEET of water
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Here is a listing of the current infrastructure outage due to Gustav, from Reuters:
Sept 1 (Reuters) - Hurricane Gustav, the first big threat to U.S. Gulf of Mexico energy and port infrastructure since Katrina and Rita in 2005, made landfall west of New Orleans Monday morning. [nN01292385]
The following outlines the impact on the energy sector:
*****HIGHLIGHTS*****
*96.3 percent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil output shut
*82.3 percent of Gulf of Mexico nat gas output shut
*27 percent of U.S. refining affected, 11 percent shut, 16percent at reduced rates.
*433,600 Entergy (ETR.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) customers lose power
*No damage assessments yet
*US waives gasoline standards in parts of Texas and Louisiana, ready to release emergency crude
*****CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS*****
*96.3 percent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico's 1.3 million barrels
per day crude output shut as of Sunday, according to
U.S. government.
*82.3 percent of the Gulf's 7.4 billion cubic feet per day
natural gas output shut as of Sunday.
*****REFINING*****
*Ten refineries with capacity of 1.9 million bpd shut
*Eight refineries with capacity of 2.8 million bpd at
reduced rates
REFINERIES NOT PRODUCING FUEL:
*ExxonMobil 193,000 bpd Chalmette, Louisiana.
*Murphy (MUR.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 120,000 bpd Meraux, Louisiana
*Conoco Phillips (COP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 280,000 bpd Lake Charles and
195,000 bpd Alliance, Louisiana, refineries
*Motiva 236,000 bpd Norco, Louisiana; 235,000 bpd
Convent, Louisiana refinery on standby.
*Marathon (MRO.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 250,000 bpd Garyville, Louisiana.
*Calcasieu shut its 80,000 bpd Lake Charles, Louisiana
*Alon (ALJ.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 80,000 bpd Krotz Springs, Louisiana
*Valero (VLO.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 250,000 bpd St. Charles, Louisiana
REFINERIES AT REDUCED RATES:
*ExxonMobil 503,000 bpd Baton Rouge, Louisiana; 567,000
bpd Baytown, Texas; 349,000 bpd Beaumont, Texas
*Citgo 430,000 bpd Lake Charles, Louisiana
*Valero 325,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas; 130,000 bpd
Houston, Texas, 245,000 bpd Texas City, Texas
*Motiva 285,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas
*****ELECTRIC POWER*****
*Entergy (ETR.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) says 433,600 of 1.9 million customers without power, 101,500 in evacuated areas, 332,600 in south east and southwest Louisiana.
*Entergy's Waterford 3 nuclear plant shut Sunday night;River Bend nuclear plant powered down to 75 percent due to lower electricity demand.
*****SHIPPING AND PORTS*****
*Louisiana Offshore Oil Port stopped unloading ships
Saturday and shut flows from storage Sunday
*Houston Ship Channel closed to inbound traffic at midnight
Sunday (0500 Monday GMT), all outbounders already gone
*Mississippi River traffic at New Orleans halted inbound at
noon (1700 GMT) Saturday, outbound as of 6 p.m. CDT (2300
GMT).
*Traffic at Lake Charles, Louisiana, halted Sunday
*Traffic at Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, halted Sunday
*Gulf Intracoastal Waterway closed Mississippi to Florida
*****PIPELINES*****
*Explorer Pipeline says entire 700,000 bpd products
pipeline, Gulf Coast to Chicago, available Monday night
*El Paso's (EP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said its Tennessee and Southern Natural
gas pipelines offshore throughput cuts total 2.5
Bcfd.
*TEPPCO's (TPP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 340,000 bpd products line from Texas to
Northeast cuts run rates, Beaumont distillate line down.
*Henry Hub natural gas trading hub shut Sunday.
*Enbridge (ENB.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (EEP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) stopped taking natural gas
production Saturday on systems with 6.7 Bcfd capacity.
(Reporting by Bruce Nichols, Erwin Seba, Chris Kelly andMarcy Nicholson; Editing by Richard Valdmanis) |
