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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChanceIs who wrote (144007)	9/2/2008 11:04:36 PM
From: Pogeu Mahone	Respond to of 306849

I was in a Nike store today that does not have a fall line. WTF. Still all summer stuff.

To: ChanceIs who wrote (144007)	9/3/2008 10:13:12 AM
From: Smiling Bob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

We have to endure the short term finagling These guys refuse to be pessimistic. Negativity could cost them their jobs. So they always feel a need to paint a rosy picture while downplaying any economic weakness. Admitting concern would show weakness. And the band played on... --- Retailers' Summer Prices Are Insane Deep discounts could significantly hurt margins, earnings. Glenn Curtis Sep 03, 2008 8:05 am Many retailers -- from American Eagle (AEO) to Nordstrom (JWN) to Zales (ZLC) -- are offering up some great bargains these days, in an effort to draw strapped consumers into their stores. Come earnings time, however, the firms may end up paying for it - literally. Discounts that drive foot traffic could have a dramatically negative impact on margins. ''Even though retailers are entering the season conservatively, they still have been too optimistic about the consumer,'' said Dan Hess, CEO and founder of Merchant Forecast. At mall-based stores -- despite inventories that have declined as much as 15% -- discounts are 10% deeper than they were a year ago. One should be wary of raw sales data and its meaning, and probably be careful when dropping by the local mall: Seeing a flurry of activity at a particular store does not mean earnings are about to skyrocket. Hefty discounts may also, in some cases, have an adverse impact on brand image - and gross margin trends are going to be essential. Also important to keep in mind is the fact that holiday season is just around the corner: Some retailers are going to be heavily under the gun to make room for that cute little dancing Santa Claus and/or the ol’ Red Ryder BB Gun. This, in turn, could exacerbate markdowns, pinch margins and possibly lead to some rough results. Keeping a close eye on bellwether types like Wal-Mart (WMT), in the discount arena, and Macy’s (M), among the department stores, is also a good idea. Their margins may provide some insight into what others will experience. If they were to report weak top line sales numbers, I’d be concerned that further discounting could follow, since low prices bring more folks in the doors. But I’m a big believer in retail over the long haul. We are still a nation of consumers, after all. At the same time, however, I think there's an awful lot of risk here, and it shouldn’t be overlooked.

To: ChanceIs who wrote (144007)	9/3/2008 1:08:55 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

I'm getting hurt here, too. Squeezed by retail and bank stocks, of all things. WTF? What are we missing? Did somebody rescue the clownsumer when I wasn't looking? And airlines are acting like peak oil was all just a bad dream. (CAL a TRIPLE in the past couple months?!?) My guess is that it's just too crowded a trade. I'm hoping that the commodity crash will at least see a little correction SOME day. Man do I wish I'd gone ahead with a few more shorts there. At least I got a couple of the shippers. I sure wish the FDIC would get moving on the bank failures. I want to see CORS closed before they pry my short position away from me. When they go into receivership, it don't matter HOW crowded the short side is - they all go to the same price... `BC