Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (70290)	9/3/2008 10:57:50 AM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Only one? <a recent survey among institutional investors reveals that another big financial firm* is expected to collapse within the next 6 months.*> They must be kidding. 2008 is rapidly drawing to a close and while TJ announced doom for 27 Feb 2007, which was indeed a little blip in Shanghai, it was irrelevant for the 6 billion of us not invested in Shanghai. GDP continues to do okay in the USA though it's nothing like China's continued rapid growth. We still don't have a recession worthy of the name let alone a depression let alone TJ's every man for himself, TeoTwawki. The Deflation stream was started about a decade ago and I have been on Deflation watch [my argument was it wouldn't happen because as Big Ben pointed out a couple of years later, his helicopter tactics will avoid that]. There has not been deflation of bogeyman style though outside the hedonic world of Consumer Price Index there has been a housing crunch and SUV pri ce crunch. Similarly, there has not been hyperinflation or a plunge beyond the event horizon of financial relativity theory into a spiraling cascade of collapsing collateral leveraged on leverage. There might be but there hasn't been, other than for individual wayward sinners like Bear Stearns, Northern Rock etc. This is increasingly feeling like waiting for the Rapture and Second Coming = an event which should be a lot of fun but one can get tired, cold and hungry sitting on a mountain top waiting, clutching a little gold talisman, wearing Nike shoes to take you to the Nirvana of the comet beyond Hale Bopp. Sure, some chanting of mystical Aztec incantations and prancing around a campfire can pass the time and make it feel as though there's some action, but it's thin gruel when cash is needed for supermarkets. It's a bit like the denizens of New Orleans having been once frightened are now hiding in their hutches, armed and dangerous, or have fled, but the storm hasn't come and the mobs are more circumspect with zero herd effect "If they are looting, I might as well too because it's all going to go anyway so I might as well get my share" = the curse of the commons and every man for himself. Meanwhile, while you waited for the looting to come in the front door, I picked your pockets in an ethereal manner by buying $40 million of SKF [covering my short]. I'll continue on doom watch, but I'll do it from inside the financial maelstrom rather than from the outside clutching gold [and hoping the mob or their political representatives don't get untoward thoughts about my holdings. Bank deposit boxes are not very secure when politicians get curious about the contents. Holes in the garden are vulnerable to robbers. Maybe the attic is a good place. So far, so good. There has been over 2 years of market clearing. Exports are booming. The US$ is down so much that the USA is a bargain. China will start whining like a fleet of Americans that the USA should revalue the dollar upwards. One bank failure over 6 months isn't enough to get panic going. There is certainly potential for a black hole type implosion but it doesn't look close. Each month that goes by is another big clearing of markets. Waiting, waiting, waiting, gun loaded, hiding inside waiting for the Financial Rapture and TeoTwawki looters but this is getting very boring. Mqurice

To: carranza2 who wrote (70290)	9/4/2008 6:27:18 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

C2, as you saw today, my covering of my $40 million SKF short was highly profitable. I hope you were loading up your Tonka Truck when I was buying too or you missed out. Well, you still can get some gains before I hit it again with another short if it gets up to my hit point. I'm thinking of $130 as the next hit point. But that depends on macro circumstances too. Currently $118. But SKF is as likely to sag right down from here to provide a covering opportunity for my remaining $20 million short. This is so easy! Like shooting fish in a barrel as they say. More fun to go. Zim the Amazing should have stuck around. TJ's puny efforts don't match those gains. Mqurice