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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (39504)	9/3/2008 4:43:56 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 219782

hmmmn indeed worth watching this chrome thing more watch / brief fm stratfor Geopolitical Diary: The Diplomatic Phase of the Georgian War September 3, 2008 \| 0141 GMT We are now in the diplomatic phase of the Georgian war. The Russians, responding to Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia, invaded Georgia. Their troops remain in Georgia. No one outside of Georgia is prepared to do anything about it. No one wants to admit that they are doing nothing about it, so they hold meetings and then decide to do nothing about it. This is called diplomacy. The European Union held their emergency meeting on Georgia three weeks after the war began. They were deeply divided between those countries, like Germany, who wanted to do nothing at all, and others like Britain that wanted to do something symbolic. The hardliners won, and the Europeans announced that they are suspending negotiations with Russia on the future of economic ties. Since those talks have been under way for a year, the suspension is hardly likely to stun the Russians. Sanctions were rejected. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner put it bluntly and honestly: “Sanctions by those who supply are very different than sanctions by those who are on the receiving end and who can’t close the tap.” In other words, the Russians supply energy to Europe. Europe supplies little to Russia that it can’t get elsewhere. Therefore sanctions are impossible. Europe has no military force to bring to bear and it wouldn’t bring it to bear even if it had any. Suspending meaningless negotiations is all they have in their tool kit. Needless to say, the Russians are not impressed. The nations that are impressed are the Central European countries that had been Soviet satellites. The Baltics and particularly the Poles expected more. There is something truly charming about the Poles: No matter how many times they are let down by the British and French, they continue to believe that this time, the British and French will come through. The Balts, warned by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev that Russia sees itself as responsible for Russians living abroad, and having a load of Russians living in their countries, have fallen quiet. They are calculating the fact that Europe will do nothing and that the Americans are concerned with other matters. The Europeans have delivered their diplomatic message and Warsaw and Moscow understand it clearly. The Americans are also ramping up their diplomatic efforts. Vice President Dick Cheney is flying to Azerbaijan, and then visiting Georgia and Ukraine. It is not clear what, if anything, he is bringing with him. His decision to visit Azerbaijan first is particularly interesting, if not altogether clear. There is speculation that he wants to reach an agreement with Azerbaijan on energy matters to upset the Russians. It is unclear whether the Azeris are in any mood to upset the Russians. It is of course noteworthy that Azerbaijan borders Iran as well as Russia. That makes it an interesting place to be, but whether it has any meaning remains murky. Even less clear is what Cheney is going to do in Tbilisi and Kiev. It is difficult to see what he has to offer. Right now the question in both countries is what value U.S. guarantees have. Simply showing up and making assurances will decrease American credibility, not increase it. So logic indicates that he will offer something. He can’t offer NATO membership, as it would be vetoed by some European countries. He could offer bilateral security pacts, but aside from enraging the Russians, how the U.S. would support such a pact is not apparent. Perhaps he will offer to place a few battalions in each country for symbolic purposes, but nothing is more dangerous than deploying an insufficient number of troops in the expectation that their mere presence will tie Russian hands. It could also trigger an unpleasant response. So we are in a diplomatic phase. Meetings are being held. Dinners are being eaten. Press conferences are going on. Meanwhile, the Russians are looking at the board and considering their next move.