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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (31897)	9/3/2008 4:34:27 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78626

Oil, I would say OXY and TLM. Depending on further drops maybe SU and PBR. If you want integrateds, E. If you want small caps, GTE. :) I would avoid natural gas plays, since IMO there is much likely to be glut of NG than oil. I have no clue about metals and other commodities.

To: E_K_S who wrote (31897)	9/3/2008 4:40:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78626

EKS. I'm a little shell-shocked with all my positions in the oil sector. I added substantially (for me) to CVX yesterday. If CVX will drop further I want to continue to add aggressively to pump up my shares to a full position (But, otoh, I may scare myself from doing this-- these oil stocks are so volatile and the press is so negative about where oil prices are going.) I added to TLM today. It's a one-stop for several oil shale plays - New Brunswick, Fayetteville, Montney. IF oil will stay above say $85-$90 barrel, and IF Lula (Brazilian President) doesn't choke Petrobras with onerous tax laws-- or worse, confiscation - 'we want our fair share' stuff -- then imo, if anybody wants an oil stock to buy for 2 year or more holding, and if the person doesn't already own Petrobras, then NOW would be the time to begin accumulating this stock. All jmo, and I have been wrong many, many times. Especially recently.

To: E_K_S who wrote (31897)	9/3/2008 7:39:05 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78626

EKS, regarding commodity stocks, I'm beat up there to the point where I'm reluctant to commit more funds to the sector. I am coming to believe the market is telling me I have no idea what I am doing and that the market is right. I hold RIO. I like it. Stock's a point away from a 12-mo low. Not sure what I'll do at this point (add more or just hold). Your idea to watch it a little longer seems reasonable. If I didn't already hold some shares, I'd more strongly consider entering for a small buy somewhere around current level. I haven't a good reason for this, but I look favorably at commodity producers where the controlling insider shareholders are family members. I assume they are very careful about the acquisitions and new mines that their companies develop. So that'd be TCK and LMC, for example, that I like. LMC at a new low. I've been following it on the way down with buys: I may add more tomorrow. (Same kind of story as PBR. They are going to have a new mine in operation in 2009-2010 and IF commodity prices hold and IF there's no new onerous tax laws or government (Congo, Russia) confiscatory actions, the stock will do okay--imo. (Looks like Congo is going to insist on a larger take. FCX (in which I hold shares too) is also affected by Congolese actions.) CCJ's major uranium mine has flooded again. (They hadn't been able to repair it from the first flood.) That might help competitor USU. I've shares in both :>( "Commodity" encompasses quite a bit. For agricultural, maybe it's time now to look at ADM-- stock hasn't been this low since Jan '06. P/e at 8 is low historically. I've no shares now, but will consider a small buy for tomorrow. Holding AUY. :>( Near a 12-mo low, this one might be worth a speculative bet now on gold.

To: E_K_S who wrote (31897)	9/3/2008 10:13:08 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78626

EKS. Yes, same for me re. HD. I'm out. Will consider reentering about $23 level. LOW and HD stock prices seem to be correlated. May opt for LOW at lower levels instead of HD: LOW seems the better managed company (from what I read and anecdotally from shopping trips).