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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: michael97123 who wrote (414076)9/5/2008 2:47:28 PM
From: Joe NYC  Respond to of 1578339
 
Michael,

not as close as i thought it might be.

True. But one day 3 point swing could still be meaningful. Consider a hypothetical scenario:

Day 1: +7
Day 2: +7
Day 3: +7

If they do straight average, what would it take to go from this average +7 day lead to average +3? First we delete Day 1 and then solve for Day 4. Sum of days 2 to 4 needs to be 12 (3 * 3), so Day 4 needs to be -2 (McCain lead of 2).

But the scenario migh just as well been:

Day 1: +13
Day 2: +4
Day 3: +4

In which case Day 4 would have been +4.

Another way they may be doing it by putting different weighs. For example:

Day 1: 0.5x
Day 2: 1.0x
Day 3: 1.5x

In which case a smaller swing would have been necessary for a more heavily weighted new day.

Anyway, I am just playing with the numbers. We need to wait until Sunday or Monday to get the post convential results.

Joe