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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (10842)	9/5/2008 1:29:18 PM
From: philv	3 Recommendations Respond to of 71454

Unemployment rate keeps climbing. More people on govt assistance, less paying taxes, and those who are working are spending less and less. Not a pretty picture for the economy, for US national debt, or for financials. A a rising dollar does not support jobs or US competitiveness. I wonder if Ben is thinking about warming up the helicopter soon? Or are there other tricks in the bag?

To: Tommaso who wrote (10842)	9/5/2008 5:57:35 PM
From: IngotWeTrust	7 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71454

[Dryily] This must be your first initial, hugely coordinated, multiple CB intervention. Funny. You look older, and talk a big game.

To: Tommaso who wrote (10842)	9/6/2008 3:18:52 AM
From: Real Man	4 Recommendations Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 71454

We'll see. Stagflation is the direction of the ship, and deflation thesis could simply be right at this moment in time, as we see a reversal in credit creation? US current account deficit accounts for global monetary pump? Etc. You are a bear, so you know the story well. We should see a rather drastic drop of S and P 500 then, and US current account deficit should come down quite a bit too. Gold always has been and remains a monetary metal. The tag of war is between the natural deflationary forces at this point of the credit cycle and the Fed's irresponsibility with the printing press. Bugs believe the press will always be used irresponsibly -g- A bunch of stuff on this on minyanville.com. A very simple thesis here - Fed's account has been drained (loaned out via repos and the soup of facilities) to about 350 billion, and it remained roughly stable since May. They printed 20 billion since, but it's not enough, as the credit destruction machine is going at full speed ahead. When they print hundreds of billions, we'll go Zimbabwe. The problem I always had with that line of thought is that US government itself is in huge debt, so dollars must be created to pay for all of this, and they will. However, deflation is possible intermediate term. Japan has done it for decades - the debt levels of the Japanese government are even more insane now than those of US government. However, Japan is an exporter. Makes a huge difference... The credit crisis WILL spread to US government debt next. It may take some time, as the authorities will do whatever possible to postpone the inevitable.