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To: bullbud who wrote (84917)	9/10/2008 10:05:45 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	5 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

There has also never been this much hot money in the sector as well. If you look at the top holdings of the top hedge funds, they are all commodities and even the most respected money managers like Ken Heebner bought in right at the top. Goldman Sachs has been putting out an index called the "VIP" index, which tracks the 50 or so biggest holdings of hedge funds. They were all commodity related names. This was bound to happen. Now investors are running scared and pulling their money and just wanting to hold cash. This causes forced selling. This is what deleveraging is all about. We're seeing the same thing in the short dollar position, the rise in financials on an aggregate basis. Everything is inter-related whether we know it or not. I totally agree with you that the prices don't make sense and so if you're not leveraged and you have long term fundamentals on your side (NZ just cut rates and others will follow), then it's time to get long commodities equities, no doubt. Right now the XAU gold stocks index could easily rise 35% without any move in the price of gold. The move from 150 to 110ish is completely unjustified by the fundamentals.

To: bullbud who wrote (84917)	9/10/2008 10:18:36 PM
From: Jim McMannis	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

I've been trading gold and energy for 30 years. Never have we had a peak like this to fall from. We did see a good flushing in '87 though. In a while we'll be reading about the forced liquidation that's ocuring now. Some funds are involved, IMO.

To: bullbud who wrote (84917)	9/10/2008 11:23:51 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Bubbles re-trace in a bell curve. Get over it.

To: bullbud who wrote (84917)	9/11/2008 7:37:41 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

>> The miners are at levels = to 300 gold. Sorry, not natural. It may fool you. It sure as hell ain't foolin' me. << 300 gold? Sorry anyone in this sector for the past 9 years should know better. Gold stocks are not priced for 300 gold. 600-700 given the rise in input prices is probably more accurate. Look at oil stock valuations. These are cyclical companies. Why should gold stocks get a premium? They may on the way up since their overall market cap size is small, but the same can happen on the way down in reverse. I've also been in the sector for 9 years. Do I think there's manipulation? Sure, but it's usually short term in nature (1-2 days) and not the primary cause. If you look at gold stocks in isolation and are sitting on big loses it's easy to cry manipulation. If you step back and look at things rationally it's really not that hard to see the causes. I've been over these already so I'm not going to rehash it.

To: bullbud who wrote (84917)	9/11/2008 8:01:02 AM
From: ajtj99	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

When the government stands ready to release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, it puts a lid on the price of oil regardless of hurricane activity. During Rita and Katrina, they waited until after the damage was done to decide whether to release oil. Furthermore, it is uncertain as to whether the next administration will top off the strategic reserve like the current one did. They may go back to buying and selling from it like the Clinton administration. It doesn't pay to complain when trades don't go your way. It does pay to know what's going to happen, however: Oil, from August 1. We got to within $1.80 of the target this week: siliconinvestor.com Natural Gas, from July 24. We hit the target right on the head: siliconinvestor.com As for Gold, I've had $675 as a target off the highs since January.