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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bob zagorin who wrote (44410)	9/12/2008 9:12:05 AM
From: Eric	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57684

Bob I pretty much agree with all of your points. The entire PV market is going to cross what I call "The Valley of Death" in the next couple years as we approach grid parity. Probably one third of the companies will go out of business as panel prices drop in the face of a coming glut. Once grid parity is reached sales will explode and the well managed companies will shine. If the ITC had been renewed last December I don't think the "death" scenario would have played out but now it's pretty much baked into the cake at this point. (Personally I would like to see the ITC but in a couple years it really will not matter.) JMHO I've taken 3 trips to Germany in the last 6 years to study what they have been doing with RE (renewable energy). The Germans are terrified about the Russians cutting off their Natural Gas supply. While I was in Germany just last June I was able to tour a number of companies in RE. While in Northern Germany heading to the island of Silt one windy morning we traveled by about 800 large wind turbines by my count. About one in five was shut down because the grid in Northern Germany was maxed out! Too much power was being generated and there was not enough demand. I was told talking to a few power engineers that they are trying to intertie to outside areas to ship power out of the region. Really impressive seeing what the Germans have done, especially the big increase of PV's on roofs the last four years.