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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (85011)	9/12/2008 6:51:58 AM
From: Dan3	8 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I still think you have far too much faith in the honesty and intelligence of our government. Just as you were ~2 to 3 years early (and about 2 to 3 years wrong - me too!) about the housing bubble, because who could possibly imagine that the great leaders of our business and government institutions would just lie and cheat about the value of bonds etc. for years - but they did. I think you are grossly overestimating their integrity once again. A couple giant sugar boosts to the diabetic patient that is the U.S. economy is what these guys are will be giving us through the election in an attempt to keep the current pols in power. At that point we may well see the financial equivalent of a diabetic coma. But for the near term, the result will be a price inflation. Economically, it shouldn't be happening, since unemployment will be continuing to rise and GDP continuing to fall, but that's what we're going to get, due not to economic factors or anything approaching reason or logic, but due to venality and political ambitions of our business and government leaders. Have you looked at your grocery bill lately? Keep in mind that, if money supply falls at 10 per cent per month, while output falls at 11 per cent per month - it's hugely inflationary. Were you expecting the "stimulus checks" - are you now expecting more?

To: mishedlo who wrote (85011)	9/12/2008 7:18:50 AM
From: John Carragher	Respond to of 116555

the hedge funds want it both ways.. there is no speculation in oil/commodities that would cause the run in oil prices.. holy crap we are all caught and better get out.

To: mishedlo who wrote (85011)	9/14/2008 7:32:42 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 116555

I'm largely in your camp here (85%+) and thought it was a very good read. One note I would make though is often the lag between prices. You can't point to a chart of oil and the Dollar at the same time and infer the that since they didn't react at the same time they are not related. Good traders will of course predict and start to position themselves. The proximate cause is/was global slowing as you suggest, but the Dollar rally hastened the end result (as it also played a cause on the way up imho). Again very good read overall - just my 2c.