Palin Gives McCain Boost But Doesn't Put Ticket Over Top in Swing States
By SARA MURRAY
September 12, 2008
Sen. John McCain's vice-presidential pick, Sarah Palin, is helping the Republican candidate nationally but hasn't yet changed his fortunes in some of the largest swing states.
Sen. McCain is still trailing in Ohio -- seen as a Republican must-win -- according to new surveys of big battleground states by Quinnipiac University. There, Democratic nominee Barack Obama is leading by five percentage points, 49% to 44%. Last month the Obama lead was just one point.
Sen. McCain continues to trail in Pennsylvania, though Gov. Palin may be proving more helpful to him there, partially thanks to gains among women. Sen. Obama's lead has shrunk: He is preferred by 48% of likely voters to Sen. McCain's 45%, a slight improvement for Sen. McCain, who trailed by seven percentage points a month ago.
In Florida, Sen. McCain continues to lead, now by seven percentage points, up from four last month, according to a Quinnipiac survey there. The new reading has Sen. McCain up 50% to 43%.
To be sure, Alaska Gov. Palin wins positive reviews in all three states, with voters saying by significant margins that she was a good choice for the Republican ticket.
"Palin's having an impact, there's no doubt about that," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Whether it's a lasting impact or not...we'll find out down the road."
Sen. McCain's support among white women grew by five percentage points in Pennsylvania and by four points in Ohio in the wake of the Palin pick. In Florida, where it was already high, it fell two points.
But in pivotal Ohio, which President George W. Bush won in 2000 and 2004, and which is commonly seen as a Republican must-win, because no Republican has ever won the presidency without taking the state, a popular vice-presidential pick still wasn't enough to swing the poll.
If Sen. Obama is "able to continue to make progress in places like Ohio and hold Pennsylvania in spite of the bump McCain got, that's, I think, very good news for the Obama camp," says Mark Mellman, a Democrat pollster who isn't affiliated with the Obama campaign.
Ohio had the highest percentage of likely voters who said the vice-presidential picks would have little effect on their vote for president.
Additionally, Sen. Obama has set his sights on the state and has spent significant time and money working to swing it in his favor.
But possibly the most influential reason behind Ohio's behavior is its distressed economy. Like voters from each state polled, Ohioans ranked the economy as their No. 1 concern. But in many ways, Ohio is worse off than the rest. It has a 7.2% unemployment rate -- the sixth-highest in the country, according to July data. The state lost 5,600 manufacturing jobs between January and July of this year, and more than 237,000 since January 2001 when President Bush took office.
Pennsylvania, often seen as an economically downtrodden state, still fares better with a 5.2% unemployment rate, which is below the national average.
The candidates are neck-and-neck among male voters in the Ohio survey, which has a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points. Sen. Obama gained support among men, and he still has a 10-point lead with women there. He also enjoys commanding leads with young voters and black voters.
By comparison, Sen. McCain fares better in Florida largely because he does much better among women there. In Florida, he is tied with Sen. Obama among women, while holding a 54% to 41% advantage among men.
And Pennsylvania is close largely because Sen. Obama's lead among women is almost offset by Sen. McCain's lead with men. The Florida and Pennsylvania surveys have 3.1-percentage-point margins of error.
All three states are close enough to remain in play, but the Palin pick has certainly provided new opportunities for Sen. McCain.
"She's given McCain the opportunity to say, 'I'm really not that boring white guy you thought I was....I'm for change, too. My change is different than Sen. Obama's and it's better,'" says Quinnipiac's Mr. Brown.
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