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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (40162)	9/13/2008 7:50:47 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95931

Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (9/13/08) amateur-investor.net It was a volatile week with large intra day moves in both directions and I expect this will continue next week as we have a Federal Reserve meeting and some key economic reports as well along with the continuing saga in the Financial sector. As I have talked about the past few weeks one of the key things to watch is the Volatility Index (VIX). In the past we have seen market bottoms occur followed by decent rallies ranging from 8% to 15% (points A to B) when the VIX has risen above the 30 level (points C). So far the VIX has only risen into the mid 20’s thus it appears the major averages may have to go lower before we see another bottom develop. As far as the major averages the key level to watch in the Dow is around 10700 (point D) which corresponds to its 50% Retracement Level calculated from the October 2002 low to the October 2007 high. Also the 10700 level is where the Dow found support at in 2006 (point E). If the Dow were to break below the 10700 area in the Fall then its next area of longer term support would be at its 61.8% Retracement Level near 9750 (point F). The Nasdaq so far in 2008 has been holding support near 2200 (points G) which is near its longer term 38.2% Retracement Level calculated from the October 2002 low to the October 2007 high. Thus the thing to watch in the Fall is whether the Nasdaq can hold maintain support around the 2200 level or not. If the Nasdaq were to break below the 2160 level then its next longer term support area would be at its 50% Retracement Level near 2000 (point H). The Nasdaq 100 has been holding support near its longer term 38.2% Retracement Level near 1670 (point I) so far in 2008 so this will be a key level to watch in the Fall. If the Nasdaq 100 were to break below the 1700 level then its next area of longer term support would be at its 50% Retracement Level near 1500 (point J). As for the S&P 500 has a key support level in the near term around 1200 (point K) so this will be a key level to watch this Fall. If the S&P 500 were to break below 1200 then its next area of support would either be at its 50% Retracement Level near 1170 (point L) or at its 61.8% Retracement Level around 1075 (point M). With all of the volatility and the downward bias in the market in 2008 it's been very difficult to invest in anything for a long period of time. The best opportunities have generally been in the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) which track the major averages and certain sectors playing both sides of the market. So far in 2008 our ETF Strategies have worked the best with SPY ETF which tracks the S&P 500 up 27% versus the S&P 500 which is down 15% for the year.