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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KLP who wrote (268697)	9/15/2008 4:11:32 AM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793939

"Palin v. Obama: ......... Hugh Hewitt Funny, I read this just ahead of you and decided not to post it because I am getting "Palinated." Just too much stuff up.

To: KLP who wrote (268697)	9/15/2008 12:33:27 PM
From: Alan Smithee	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793939

Rasmussen Reports: Rossi by 6 It is but one poll, thus it would be prudent not to get too rambunctious in response, but Ramussen latest of Rossi 52% to Gregoire's 46% is another in a steady series of indicators that the Gregoire campaign is flailing. First, it's the 2nd poll this week to show movement in Rossi's favor. Moreover, the pollsters in question are the only two firms doing regular, public polling the race. Second, the polls themselves confirm the appeal that Rossi had in 2004 has been translated to this campaign as well. Rasmussen showing Rossi up by six while McCain trails by two means there are lots of "Dinocrats" out there. The crosstabs back this up: - Rossi wins 94% of Republicans, while Gregoire secures only 81% of Democrats. - Rossi even earns the support of 27% of self-described liberals. - Rossi leads in all four demographic groups under $75,000 in household income. Yes, a sample size of 500 likely voters means the crosstabs are volatile, but that is still evidence that just like 2004, Rossi appears to be winning votes that Gregoire can't afford to lose. Note that SurveyUSA shows the same trend of Rossi outperforming McCain. Their poll linked above had Rossi ahead 48% - 47%, while McCain remains behind Obama by four points. Third, Rossi's contributor base just keeps growing. The campaign announced donor number 44,000 on September 8th. Since that time they've crossed the 48,000 barrier. That kind of grassroots energy means volunteers working hard on the campaign's behalf, in addition to cash flow. Fourth, speaking of incoming receipts, Rossi outraised Gregoire by over half a million in cash contributions in August. As of this typing, he leads her in reported receipts in September too, $221,000 to $126,000. Yes, both sides should have ample resources from here to Election Day. But the challenger won't be outspent in any substantive way by the incumbent, and Gregoire might even be outraised down the stretch. Fifth, Rossi is dictating the campaign narrative. Part of that is Gregoire's bizarre insistence with playing semantical games rather than facing up to fiscal reality. One wonders how that will hold up in a debate. The nail in this coffin is Joel Connelly's assessment today. We disagree with Joel often here at Sound Politics thanks to his leftward leanings, but few can match his knowledge of Washington state campaign history. Thus, when he says a Democratic campaign is floundering its time to pay attention. Connelly says "the Gregoire campaign needs an infusion of excitement and imagination." He also confirms what we've been saying about the $2 million Evergreen Progress has spent swinging at Dino Rossi - and largely missing: By contrast, the Democrats' "independent" attack group, trying to make an issue out of Rossi's social conservatism, has yet to leave a mark on its target. Add it all up and Rossi's campaign looks good (even if I'd be more comfortable saying Rossi leads by two or three rather than six). Gregoire's campaign really didn't start fumbling until a few weeks out from Election Day in 2004. This year it seems to have started a little early. There remains massive caveat though: it's still early. The debates between Rossi and Gregoire - and there looks to be at least five - are unpredictable. It's still a Democratic state, no matter how enthusiastic Republicans might be. And roughly seven weeks to go is still a lifetime in politics. But it's better to be ahead with the wind at your back than not. Posted by Eric Earling at September 12, 2008 08:04 PM \| Email This soundpolitics.com