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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (40173)	9/15/2008 11:43:58 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95896

AMAT, KLAC [others?] bucking the trend

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (40173)	9/15/2008 11:47:38 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95896

Recovery of Demand for Semi Equipment Delayed - Pacific Crest posted on: September 11, 2008 Pacific Crest’s Weston Twigg Thursday morning trimmed his EPS estimates for a number of semiconductor equipment companies, asserting that a recovery in demand is likely to take longer than previously expected. “Given the lingering imbalance between memory chip supply and demand, we expect new fab projects to continue to be delayed or to tamp slower than originally planned in 2009,” he wrote in a research note. “We believe spending will be relatively flat over the next three quarters, and we do not expect meaningful growth in spending until late 2009 or early 2010.” Twigg notes that due to “meaningful oversupply,” prices for both NAND and DRAM chips continue to deteriorate. He says the December quarter could show sequential improvement in orders from the September quarter, but that “sustained growth is unlikely.” In Twigg’s view, consensus estimates for 2009 for the equipment stocks have to come down. Here’s a rundown on Twigg’s estimate cuts: ASML (ASML): 2008 EPS remains 0.98 Euros; ‘09 now 1.24, down from 1.53. He cut his target on the stock to 24 Euros, from 26. Varian Semiconductor (VSEA): For September 2008 FY, estimate is unchanged at $1.30. For ‘09, he goes to 87 cents, from $1.18. For 2010, he goes to $3.25, from $3.67. He also cut his target on the stock to $40 from $43. KLA-Tencor (KLAC): For June 2009 FY, he’s now at $1.47, down from $1.57; 2010 drops to $2.14, from $2.47. Cymer (CYMI): For 2008, unchanged at $1.33; for 2009, $1.42, down from $1.62. Novellus (NVLS): For 2008, unchanged at 31 cents; for 2009, 43 cents, down from 64 cents. seekingalpha.com