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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (146926)	9/16/2008 12:07:40 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I am aware of 89-93, and was investing then. It wasn't fun except for riding Citigroup up from $14. The Commercial RE bomb hasn't even gone off yet this time but the fuse is burning down and can't be put out. It should detonate sometime in the next few months. I stand by my statement that this will be closer to the early 30's rather than the early 90's. I am not worried about getting fleeced, although I agree with your statement. Like most regular contributors to this thread I have far more investing experience than most of the "players" on Wall Street.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (146926)	9/16/2008 12:14:26 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 306849

Thus the big perception difference between commercial and residential. Commercial was largely seen as someone elses problem if not seen at all. Residential is much different.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (146926)	9/16/2008 1:12:01 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

i remember that period....there were huge tax shelters given and billions of dollars went into commercial real estate development creating a huge oversupply to this day some of those buildings (at least in my area) are still partially empty.....the next building boom just moved location further outside the concentric circle...that's where we are now, huge oversupply already built and still under construction... are you suggesting that somehow things aren't as bad as they were then?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (146926)	9/16/2008 1:22:13 PM
From: butschi2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Today compared to 1989-93 is different, because interconnection in the financial system are far stronger and the system is now truly global and will affect all countries around the globe and we have financial WMDs now. The WMDs didnt exist on this scale in the good old times and now the face value of derivatives is $600 trillion. Its the leverage based on leveraged assets that makes all very dangerous. OpEx will get very interesting for this month. Nearly all asset classes had very wild swings in the last month: Gold, Oil, Other Commodities, equities, bonds and currencies, coupled with spreads, volatility and TED-Spreads increasing on top of this come losses from LEH-CDS, AIG-CDS and outright losses from LEH hitting the wall. This should kill many players on the wrong side. I expect more hedge fonds hitting the wall, especially in the oil pits. With a 30-40% + price decline in a few weeks some players on the wrong side should have gotten wiped out. The bombs exploding arent solely asset write downs now but boosted by leverage through derivatives. AIG will go down through CDS not through asset write downs on conventional investments. Its the leverage that will kill them. Therefore i dont believe in decoupling only in a furious recoupling and i expect some huge public infrastructure spending projects in the nex few years to come out of recession/depression.