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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zeta1961 who wrote (33004)	9/16/2008 8:53:14 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 149317

an interesting assessment of the presidential race: fivethirtyeight.com bryen193 said... What an interesting election so far. Here's my take: McCain was fundamentally behind so his VP choice was his only big shot of changing things. Obama's choice wasn't nearly as important because the Obama ticket was always going to be about Obama and not much else (any older white guy with experience will do). So McCain is faced with 2 routes: Plan A: Choose a far right conservative to fire up the right wing base and try to replicate the Bush map exactly. This is unlikely to work because structurally the race so favors democrats, and there's no margin for error. Or... Plan B: Go "maverick" by making a major play for independents and moderates and say he's going to shake up Washington with reform-minded bi-partisan moderate conservatism while thinking screw the base, who else are they going to vote for? This is also unlikely to work because without enthusiasm from the Rove-created evangelical turnout machine, he can't compete with the Obama ground game. So what does he do? The wiley old guy injects massive confusion into the race by implementing Plan A, while PROCLAIMING LOUDLY that he's actually implementing Plan B! He steals all of Obama's mojo and media attention in the process, and maybe even steals a few disgruntled Hillaryites. So did it work? No. McCain is still fundamentally behind. Palin is being unmasked and peaked much too soon. By election day, she'll still be a heroine of the far right, but not much more. He has, though, prevented an overwhelming Obama win by forcing the race back to the Bush map. On election day, Obama wins by holding all Kerry states, adding Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia (and coming close but no cigar in Ohio). September 16, 2008 5:28 PM