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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: GST who wrote (11247)9/18/2008 4:48:52 AM
From: LTK0076 Recommendations  Respond to of 71463
 
The historical average of investors in the stock market was 10% when it started to climb reaching a plateau around 54%.
The highest ever before the 1990s was 20% just before the crash of 1929.
There was period arounds 1980-182 where 5% of households were in the market.

Now i have been somewhat controversial saying the stockmarket was never existent for the purpose of financiang a society.
Also the LTBH propagandist, with the mantra to JPQ, "Be smart don't try to time the market.Just stay invested and add as time goes by" is a mantra they use but do not practice themselves.
Corrected to real inflation LTBH got annihilated from 1966 to 1982.
Corrected to REAL inflation they have been annihilated since 2000.
Newman has a lot of charts and data that prove the statement that the SPX index overtime will yield 7% perannum is a scam statistic, corrected for inflation and costs, they are very lucky if they are breaking even.

You ask where will the public go???

This actually is a HUGE QUESTION with major implications.
We created a fantasy with IRAs and 401ks.
O it looked great during the greatest market run in history, and which was itself greatly fed by JQP pouring into the market and Mutual Funds becoming a religion.

i even then stated the 401k program was set up to create an industry and in the end it would be an utter failure.

Stock Markets are and always will be dangerous and you need experience to survive.
i will say society was never meant to invest in something they don't understand.


The statistics on how many do NOT have near enough to retire on is frightening.

Where will JQP go when he realizing he is not forming a nest egg, that in fact for many americans they have seen their nest egg vanishing as Financial Stocks i read are the most highly held stocks nationwide.
And many of the stocks, such as GE, are "old reliables".
i would say a lot of people are down 50% this year.

Greenspan and his relentless babble on the wealth effect is now in reverse.
Now market reinflated following 2002 largely because of using homes to give householders cash, a fair amount went into the stock market.That conniving ploy, is now DEAD.



i am wanting to see new statistics on percentage of households in market, i think the system has become so dependent on JQP money in the market, that a drop to 30% even will hurt the market.

i ramble, but fact is the U.S. Government, WS and Mutual Funds created a massive industry that did not exist until the 1990s, and that created a dangerous delusion of the new society would pay for itself via the stock market.

Keynes in the 30s said a stock market can NEVER be the basis to support the economy, it must only be a mirror of what the economy actually is.(Keynes is unfairly attacked with virulence that is largely idealogical emotion attacking so common among economist--it's a pretty vicious backstabbing profession or OBSESSION i'd say ---- for he was far more adaptable than people think---his handling the Britain Economy through WWII he used methods one would NOT expect. His living to 63 was also quite an accomplishment as he was expectd to die a good deal younger--he had a heart disease)

As i look to the future the pain will only get greater for JPQ, he will have to more and more sell his holdings to pay bills.
i have been a Cassandra about this for about 10 years---sorry all:)

So where will the public go, at this point i think their only hope is frugality, save what they can and go to CDs perhaps.

i am not saying there won't be periodic nice bear rallies, but i see this bear as feirce and prolonged.

i do not laugh at people i respect seeing SPX500 at 500 down the road.

The Bush administration started with Bush pushing pushing pushing to invest SS1 funds in the market.

The idea was brutal and only pushed to help the WS/MF industry.

But i despair for the public, i do not castigate them regards the market, their crime was being gullible to listening to The Clown Idiots that they were told were EXPERTS .
Larry Kudlow, Idiot Supreme, i read is Bush'es favorite econonist, and has access to the WH.O does that tell a tale, no?

i don't see gullibility as a crime but i see exploiting gullibility as a crime.

We on this thread are savvy, but this is our game, i do not think should feel superior to the many people we know that don't generally know what we are talking about.

My broker says at best 10% of his clients have a clue as to what puts and calls are.

Here is a key point.

i have studied the Japan stock market crash that took what 13 years to reach its bottom, which may actually not be its bottom.
What happened in Japan could well happen here they FLED the market such that only 8% were invested in the market but they SURVIVED, they went to being obsessed with frugality, they had frugality clubs.
What set this off was combination of a Comercial real estate crash followed a housing collapse and a market heading downward at the same time.

i see the U.S. public doing the samething or ending up with people living in caves as they did in the Great Depression, and yes, those that don't know how bad the Great Depession, we actually had people resort to living in caves, thousands in the case of Pennsylvania.
It was the time of the HOBOS.
It was grim.

i hear talkin' heads yapping about this is just your ordinary slump. the economy will be up and running in 2009 and all will be good again and the market raging upwards.

Talkin' Head propagandist of the big lie are on TV telling JQP to just hold their equities and use cash now to start buying in ( i ask, with what cash?).

JQP is coming to the moment of saying "i don't believe you you crooked bastards"

Does he have a right to say this? Yes, absolutely.

The Mutual Fund industry etc, are NOT for the public, they are for the hucksters conning them.

i am 67, when my mothr died , it was 22days after 9/11/2001.

She was 89.75 years old, and you know what she said just a couple days before she died peacefully in her sleep. "i don't want to live in a world where George Bush is seen as a hero"
She also said " i fear for the living as the future i see is a nightmare"

She was a profoundly wise woman.Her mind totally alive until her last breath. Max Ramble complete.





To: GST who wrote (11247)9/18/2008 7:57:46 AM
From: Pogeu Mahone  Respond to of 71463
 
Money Market Funds Enter a World of Risk
By TARA SIEGEL BERNARD
Money market funds have been among the few places that investors could put their cash and sleep peacefully.

At the moment, that is not necessarily true.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Primary Fund, a giant money market fund whose parent helped invent that investment, said its customers would lose money. Instead of each share being worth a dollar for every dollar invested, it said its customers’ shares were worth only 97 cents. In Wall Street parlance, it “broke the buck,” a rare occurrence.

So far, it appears that no other money market funds have fallen below a dollar a share. And other money market managers have hastened to reassure investors that their money is safe. But the Primary Fund’s announcement did raise this question: What, in today’s world, is truly safe?

After all, the Primary Fund’s troubles did not occur in isolation. They followed the disappearance of both Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, not to mention the government bailouts of the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the insurance company American International Group. And if you haven’t already forgotten, there was the failure of the California thrift IndyMac in July.

And that’s why, in this market, financial advisers agreed on Wednesday, consumers need to become their own chief investment officers, even when it comes to something as simple as finding a place to put their cash.

“One by one, all of my safe havens aren’t so safe anymore, and that’s a bad thing,” said Matthew Tuttle, a certified financial planner and president of Tuttle Wealth Management in Stamford, Conn.

“It used to be O.K. to have money in a CD, but now you have to worry, ‘Is my bank going to go under?’ ” he added. “You used to be able to buy a guaranteed annuity from an insurance company, but now you have to worry, ‘Is my insurance company going to go under?’ Or, you can have auction-rate preferred securities, but now there is no market.”

Before you pull your cash out of your money market fund, you need to understand what you own. There is a big difference between money market mutual funds and the money market deposit accounts at a bank (and banks sometimes sell both).

Money market funds are essentially mutual funds that invest in securities that, until this week, were deemed relatively low risk. Those include government securities, certificates of deposit, asset-backed commercial paper and other highly liquid securities.

The Primary Fund got in trouble because some of its investments were in Lehman Brothers’ debt. To stop what is in essence a run on the fund, the Primary Fund has stopped all redemptions for up to seven days.

A money market deposit account, on the other hand, is entirely different. It is an interest-bearing bank account that is insured — up to $100,000 per account and up to $250,000 for some retirement accounts — by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Joint accounts are insured for $100,000 per account holder.

If you had been putting your money into a money market account because you wanted to avoid all risk, then you should consider the money market deposit accounts and other accounts insured by the F.D.I.C., like certificates of deposit and regular checking and savings accounts.

There are also Treasuries. But because so many investors were rushing into them on Wednesday, the yields have been driven down. “There is no yield,” said Saxon Birdsong, chief investment officer of Baltimore-Washington Financial Advisors. “It’s just a safety play.”

If you decide to invest — or stay — in a money market fund, there are several things you should keep in mind.

When it comes to money market funds, bigger may be better, several financial advisers said. Many investors use the funds that happen to be with the brokerage firm they are doing business with because it’s convenient to sweep money between accounts. But you should make sure your money market account is with a large, diversified money management company that would have the resources to make you whole, even if its funds ran into trouble.

Mr. Tuttle said companies like Fidelity and Vanguard fit into this category.

“I would be less comfortable with a smaller money management fund that didn’t have a lot of assets and wasn’t making a lot of money,” he said. “From my standpoint, I have a very high comfort level that if a Fidelity money market fund had toxic whatever, they would step up with the money from somewhere else to keep the buck.”

Once you decide on a provider, read the prospectus carefully. If you don’t understand the investments, call the company and ask for more details.

“I would encourage investors to not stop asking questions until they have complete comfort and peace about what they own,” said Karin Maloney Stifler, a certified financial planner with True Wealth Advisors in Hudson, Ohio.

And if you are still nervous, ask your current mutual fund company or brokerage if it has a Treasury or government money market fund that invests only in Treasury securities, said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com, a personal finance Web site.

“You will have to settle for a lower yield,” he said, “but it takes risk off the table.”

Indeed, this is one of those times when you shouldn’t necessarily choose a fund because it has a high yield. That higher yield could indicate that the fund is investing in riskier securities.

“This is a painful but poignant reminder that anything that is paying you a higher yield, you have to assume is carrying a higher risk,” said Peter Crane, president of Crane Data, which tracks money market mutual funds.

Finally, investors should diversify cash holdings, just as they would with a stock and bond portfolio.

“If you have money market mutual funds with multiple providers, you are hedging against the risk that any one of them will encounter problems that they can’t survive,” Ms. Stifler said.

But if you don’t have a strong stomach for the slightest risk, stick with investments that are F.D.I.C. insured, even if you need to sacrifice a little yield.

After all, “this is a portion of your portfolio that should help you sleep at night, not keep you awake,” Mr. McBride said.

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