Poll finds more voters see Obama as agent of change
By Robin Toner and Adam Nagourney
Thursday, September 18, 2008
WASHINGTON: Despite an intense effort to present himself as a break from the Republican Party and the way business is done in Washington, Senator John McCain is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Barack Obama, and a strong majority view him as a "typical Republican" who would continue or expand President George W. Bush's policies, according to a New York Times/CBS News Poll.
Surveys taken after the Republican convention two weeks ago week suggesting that McCain had enjoyed a surge of support - particularly among white women after his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate - appear to have reflected a short-term burst of interest, according to the Times/CBS poll. The contest between the candidates appears to be roughly where it was before the two conventions and before the vice presidential selections: Obama has the support of 48 percent of registered voters, the poll indicates, compared with 43 percent for McCain.
But McCain is maintaining some core advantages, according to the poll, particularly on experience and preparedness to be president and the ability to serve as commander in chief. Forty-eight percent of those surveyed said Obama was prepared to be president, compared with 71 percent who rated McCain as prepared. Fifty-two percent said it was "very likely" that McCain would be an effective commander in chief - twice as many as felt that way about Obama.
The difference in overall support between them is within the poll's margin of sampling error.
The poll underlined the extent to which McCain's Republican convention - and his selection of Palin, the governor of Alaska - had excited some Republican voters about his candidacy, no small thing in an election that continues to be so tight: 47 percent of Republican supporters described themselves as enthused about their party's presidential candidate, more than twice the percentage before the conventions.
The Times/CBS News poll suggested that Palin's selection has, to date, helped McCain only among Republican base voters; there was no evidence of significantly increased support for him among women voters.
White women are evenly divided between McCain and Obama. Before the selection, McCain led Obama among white women by a margin of 44 percent to 37 percent.
By contrast, at this point in the 2004 campaign, Bush was leading Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic challenger, by 56 percent to 37 percent among white women.
The poll found evidence of concern about Palin's qualifications to be president, particularly compared with Senator Joseph Biden Jr. of Delaware, Obama's running mate.
Nearly two-thirds said they would be concerned if McCain, 72, could not finish his term and Palin had to take over, a figure that cut across party lines.
In addition, 75 percent said they thought McCain had picked Palin to help him win the election, rather than because they thought she was well-qualified to be president. By contrast, 31 percent said they thought that Obama had picked Biden to help him win the election, while 57 percent said it was because they thought he was well-qualified for the job.
The poll was the taken right after Palin sat down for a series of interviews with Charles Gibson of ABC News. It was also taken during a period of economic turmoil on Wall Street.
By overwhelming numbers, those surveyed said the economy was the top issue facing the United States and expressed deep pessimism about the future.
In the past two weeks, McCain has tried to distance himself from his party and Bush, running as an outsider against Washington.
The poll suggested the urgency of McCain's task: The percentage of Americans who disapprove of the way Bush is conducting his job, 68 percent, is as high as it has been for any sitting president in the history of polling by The New York Times, of which the International Herald Tribune is the global edition. And 81 percent said the country was heading in the wrong direction.
The poll found that 46 percent of respondents thought McCain would continue Bush's policies, while 22 percent said he would be more conservative than Bush.
About one quarter said a McCain presidency would be less conservative than that of Bush. And at a time when McCain has attempted to appeal to independents by separating himself from his party, notably with his convention speech, 57 percent said they viewed him as a typical Republican, compared with 40 percent who said he was a different kind.
Although nearly half of respondents described Obama as a typical Democrat, the party's brand is not as diminished as the Republicans, as reflected by the extent to which Obama has identified himself with Democratic issues.
In one of the sharpest differences highlighted in the poll, 37 percent said that McCain would bring change to Washington, up from 28 percent before the conventions. That contrasted with 65 percent of respondents who said Obama would bring change to Washington.
Despite weeks of fierce Republican attacks, Obama has maintained an edge on several key measures of presidential leadership, including economic stewardship. Six in 10 voters said they were confident in his ability to make the right decisions on the economy, compared with 4 in 10 who felt that way about McCain.
Sixty percent also said he understood the needs and problems "of people like yourself," compared with 48 percent who said that of McCain.
And twice as many said an Obama presidency would improve the United States' image in the world - 55 percent - compared with those who believed a McCain presidency would do so. Obama also got high marks for "sharing the values most Americans try to live by," despite concerted Republican efforts to portray him as elite and out-of-touch with average voters. Sixty-six percent said Obama shared their values, compared with 61 percent who said that about McCain.
One Republican argument against Obama appears to be sticking: 49 percent said they believed their taxes would go up if the Democrat were elected, even though Obama has promised that the middle class would get tax cuts under his administration.
The Times/CBS nationwide telephone poll was taken Friday through Tuesday with 1,133 adults, including 1,004 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for all respondents and for registered voters.
Marjorie Connelly contributed reporting. |
