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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William Peeling who wrote (40293)	9/19/2008 2:05:11 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

re: How confident are you of the KLIC '09 earnings? Not confident. Did you read my caveats? Bull Scenario: 1. no exogenous shocks, no more mega-bailouts, credit available to individuals and companies. 2. consumer confidence and consumer spending trough in late 2008, and go up steadily through 2009 3. semi-equip bookings trough in early 2009, and go up steadily the rest of the year. By the June-Sept. 2009 quarter, we start to see capacity buys coming back. 4. In early 2009, the Federal government passes a tax credit to speed the transition from incandescent to LED lighting. Suddenly, KLIC is having trouble meeting demand for the equipment to make LED lights. 5. For Fiscal 2009, KLIC's quarterly EPS are: 1Q +0.10, 2Q +0.20, 3Q +0.50, 4Q +0.50, summing to +1.30 for the year. This is still well below their 2000 earnings. Bear Scenario: 1. an exogenous shock sends the SPX down another 10%-20% from today's level 2. consumer confidence, and consumer spending, decline steadily through Sept. 2009 3. semi-equip bookings decline all through Sept. 2009, reaching the 1998 or 2001 trough levels. No capacity buys, lots of push-outs. Semi financial officers question every semi-equip order, even long-planned tech upgrades. 4. For Fiscal 2009, KLIC's quarterly EPS are: 1Q -0.10, 2Q -0.15, 3Q -0.20, 4Q -0.25, summing to -0.70 for the year. This is still only half their FY2005 losses. I'm making the optimistic assumption that KLIC's management has learned something from all their past "learning experiences", and is better positioned for this downturn. What's your guess for KLIC's 2009 EPS? More interestingly, how do you arrive at that guess?