Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (148041)	9/19/2008 12:34:32 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

I've never made so much money or felt so bad about it in my life as in the last week.... I weep for my country.<NG>

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (148041)	9/19/2008 12:42:59 PM
From: XoFruitCake	Respond to of 306849

"I figure it this way: Most shorts are (justifiably) in denial of the reality right now. What are the odds that the stocks open up again Monday? What is going to happen to your portfolio? For those that remain in denial, margin calls are going to hit many next week. What happens then?" I think the thing to think about is what would happen if a bill is passed to get an RTC II going? In the worst case scenario for any bank, they would be able to dump their questionable asset and live to fight another day. The best case scenario is that they will get subsides by the tax payer on their loss. And given the NIM is in the 3+% for almost everyone, we just have an events that require a fundamentally re-evaluation on all banks asset. e.g. if you worry about the option ARM loan in WB bs, they will be able to dump these loans into RTC II at a price mostly likely less than what they carry in their book. So their capital base will be hit. But they should be able to raise capital now since everyone know that this is the last capital raising that they will do before they become a heathly bank. Remember all the stupid money coming from the sovereign fund? They get burned because it wasn't the last round of capital raising.. But now Fed just guarantee that it will be... The general economy will suck big time.. But banks are done with their major decline (imho) and shorting HB and banks has made my return in the last 3 years..So I am not talking my book. The only things I have now is an arb position of BAC/MER merger (long MER/short BAC trying to capture the spread) and an Oct 27 1/2 call position on BAC that I opened yesterday..