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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (32101)	9/19/2008 5:19:42 PM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78652

Solar. TSL. All I know about TSL is what I read in press releases and news articles. Here's a pessimistic view. renewableenergyworld.com But that issue is just the USA, and will be addressed next year. I am underwater TSL and doubled up on my TSL recently. I also own STP and am at B/E on that stock. These are my most speculative, longer time horizon investments. Here is a more optimistic clip I saved, but I don't know where it came from: August 28, 2008, 1:29 pm Pricing for solar modules in 2009 are likely to drop 10%-15% in 2009, with supply and demand largely in balance, according to Cowen analyst Robert Stone. While that sound troubling, Stone notes that there are fears in the market that pricing could drop as much as 20%-25%, due to an expected sharp reduction in subsidies in Spain. But Stone sees offsetting factors, including enhanced U.S. subsidies, rapid growth in Italy and France and the emergence of demand in new regions, including the Middle East. Stone sees solar demand of 6GW this year, increasing to 9GW in 2009 and 14GW in 2010. that view reflects his belief that Congress will pass a multi-year extension of the solar investment tax credit in the first half of 2009, “with higher residential credits and utility participation.” He says lower prices should boost demand in Germany, spark growth in Japan. “Italy appears close to grid parity,” he adds, “while Middle Eastern countries could deploy PV [photovoltaics] to preserve valuable hydrocarbons for export.” Stone’s top picks are the thin-film players Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) and First Solar (FSLR); he’s also recommending crystalline silicon companies “with stronger supply portfolios,” including SunPower (SPWR), Suntech (STP), Evergreen Solar (ESLR) and Trina Solar (TSL).