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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: vegetarian who wrote (40169)	9/20/2008 6:10:44 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218132

i do not know just watching the fun i am fortunately emptied of all involvement in skf since several weeks ago, and am taking bernanke's admonition, that deflation will not be allowed to happen as all central banks bail, i believe this is not the definitive major crisis preceding the dark interregnum although the defining crisis will happen, and following on, a dark interregnum; just not now

To: vegetarian who wrote (40169)	9/20/2008 6:15:49 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218132

just in in-tray, per GREED and fear · It is extremely important that the US authorities allow firms to fail and do not bail everyone out wily nilly. For the more the markets are allowed to correct, the more likely they are to find a natural bottom from whence a dramatic recovery can ensue. · If the US authorities continue to indulge in bailouts, they risk not only further fanning moral hazard but also contaminating the credit and good standing of America given the scale of the commitments being taken on by the Fed and the US Treasury. Stock markets are falling at a pace which suggests that a global coordinated policy response is coming sooner rather than later in terms of interest rate cuts and the like. · Asian equities are now at levels which GREED & fear views as fundamentally attractive given the view here that growth is not going to collapse in the region. GREED & fear is going to reduce the Treasury bond position in the global portfolio by 10ppts and add the money to the Asian ex-Japan equity weighting. In the Asia ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, 2ppts will be removed from Malaysia with 1ppt each added to China and India. One percentage point will also be taken from Taiwan and added to Thailand. · Japan almost seems like a haven of relative calm. GREED & fear continues to believe Japan will be a relative outperformer this year in the context of world equity markets, helped also by the relative resilience of the yen. · Domestic demand in Japan remains weak, but there seems little risk of a downward spiral. The area of greatest vulnerability on the domestic side is clearly the property sector, which is the one element of the Japanese domestic economy that was geared into the global credit bubble and is therefore also geared into the global unwind. · The weakest area of the Japanese property market is residential condominiums. Commercial property looks more resilient, most particularly from the rental standpoint. GREED & fear continues to view the J-REIT sector as fundamentally attractive even if there is clearly more short-term downside risk in the context of intensifying risk aversion. · Aside from property, if there is a risk to growth in Japan it is on the capex side. With exports to America and Europe clearly slowing, Japanese corporate sentiment will be severely impacted if the mood turns more bearish towards China. · Fukuda's resignation as Prime Minister has created a dynamic which gives the LDP a much better chance of securing a majority again in the next Lower House election. Another LDP win in the Lower House, albeit with a reduced majority, will increase the potential for a realignment of Japanese politics since the Upper House will still be under the DPJ control. · GREED & fear continues to believe that from a macro-economic standpoint Japan would benefit from a normalisation of yen interest rates. Higher interest rates remain the best way of shocking Japan out of its long entrenched neo deflationary malaise and also ridding the economy of deadbeat corporates which are depressing the profit margins of more efficient companies. · A reverse in capital outflows is the likely ultimate outcome of the sudden losses being taken by Japanese retail investors given the collapse in high yield "bubble" currencies. Macro traders should stay long the yen. If they have not already done so, they should also use any counter trend move as an opportunity to go long the yen against the likes of sterling or the Australian and New Zealand dollars. · The political stalemate would seem as intractable as ever in Thailand. The next round in the battle between pro and anti Thaksin forces is expected to be yet another general election. The bulls hope that in this next election the pro Thaksin forces will see their support reduced further to the extent that the opposition Democrat Party would be able to form a coalition government. · There is certainly a chance that the anti Thaksin forces will prevail in the short term. But it is hardly a foregone conclusion. Even if they do prevail it does not lead to the prospect of exciting government for Thailand. · The fall in the oil price means that the inflation scare in Thailand is as good as over. GREED & fear would be amazed if the Bank of Thailand raises rates again. Rather the question is when it will start cutting them with core inflation running at a low 2.7%. This should be good for interest rate sensitives such as banks. · Australian financials remain GREED & fear's favourite short in the world of financials. Investors who want to hedge that position should be long Asian financials that would benefit most from the anticipated continuing correction in the oil-led commodity complex and the end of the related inflation scare. · Investors should not give up on gold. Gold is a currency, and a hedge against both inflation and deflation since it is the only financial asset that is not part of the credit system. Gold will rally in US dollar terms when the markets start to discount renewed Fed easing. It will also outperform dramatically oil and other economically sensitive commodities.

To: vegetarian who wrote (40169)	9/20/2008 10:48:29 PM
From: benwood	Respond to of 218132

CREF money market fund is a wash for the past week, gaining earlier in the week and then actually losing a bit 3 days in a row. The third column is a 7-day average in dollars gained per day. dollar chg 7d avg date 25.3202 0.0042 0.0016 09/02/08 25.3224 0.0022 0.0017 09/03/08 25.3235 0.0011 0.0017 09/04/08 25.3256 0.0021 0.0016 09/05/08 25.3335 0.0079 0.0022 09/08/08 25.3344 0.0009 0.0020 09/09/08 25.3354 0.0010 0.0019 09/10/08 25.3370 0.0016 0.0019 09/11/08 25.3384 0.0014 0.0018 09/12/08 25.3434 0.0050 0.0014 09/15/08 25.3431 -0.0003 0.0012 09/16/08 25.3408 -0.0023 0.0008 09/17/08 25.3340 -0.0068 -0.0004 09/18/08 25.3384 0.0044 0.0000 09/19/08