To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (48473 ) 9/24/2008 8:17:16 AM From: puborectalis Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 224744 The size of Obama's lead in the new poll -- 52 percent to 43 percent among likely voters -- will draw plenty of attention. It's the first time Obama has been over the 50-percent mark in a Post-ABC News poll, and easily outside the margin of error. The nine-point margin is also larger than a number of other recent national polls. Given that the race has been very close for a long time, that Obama advantage could sag over the next couple of weeks, unless the economy has permanently altered the political environment. With negotiations over a rescue package underway and the markets edgy awaiting a possible agreement, it's too soon to know that. Top officials from both campaigns e-mailed me late last night to express skepticism at the size of Obama's lead. Schmidt called The Post poll an outlier and said it does not conform to what his campaign is seeing in its own polls. He said the battleground states still appear very tight. Bill McInturff, McCain's pollster, sent along the campaign's polling in battlegrounds Wednesday morning. They showed a close race, which he said suggested that nationally the race is close. "Somewhere, in some poll, there'd be significant/negative movement," he wrote. "That's not happened." Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said the nine-point spread seemed too rosy, although he added that the Obama campaign does not try to analyze the race through a national lens. He did not contest the idea that Obama is gaining ground, and he also raised the issue of whether the campaign's intensive vote-mobilization efforts could be having an impact on the polls. In the states, he said he believed things are solidifying in Obama's direction. Other aspects of the poll may be more problematic for McCain than the overall margin, however. The survey suggests that McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, got a real bounce from their convention, but that, as with bounces of the past, it has dissipated. Whether that's because of the new focus on the economy, a natural settling or other factors is less important than the fact that what went up has begun to come down. Take Palin. There's no question that she has energized the Republican base. The crowd she drew in Florida on Sunday -- estimated at up to 60,000 people -- says she's captured the fancy of the party faithful. But the Post-ABC poll shows that independents are notably less impressed with her today than they were in the week after she made her national debut. Similarly, McCain got a boost from his convention in the sheer enthusiasm for his candidacy -- an area where he has long lagged behind Obama. The new poll shows that strong enthusiasm for McCain fell back in the past two weeks and is now about half as great as for Obama. Can McCain rev up the enthusiasm down the stretch? The Obama campaign long has argued that this enthusiasm gap is a real advantage in the battle to get voters to the polls on Election Day. Another concern for McCain is that Obama has reopened his once-wide lead on who is the real change agent in the race. This has been at the heart of Obama's candidacy, but McCain made genuine inroads on the strength of his convention. Now, he has slipped back. The biggest worry for McCain is that, because of rising concerns about the economy, the playing field is now tilted so heavily in the direction of Obama and the Democrats. When the general election began in June, 34 percent of Americans cited jobs and the economy as the issues that would be the most important in their vote. Twenty percent cited Iraq. Today, half of registered voters say the economy and jobs are the most important issues in the campaign. Just nine percent cite the war in Iraq, even as McCain has come to believe that the issue of the war plays to his advantage because of the reduction in violence that the surge has helped produce. McCain now needs events to help reduce the importance of the economy as an issue. Or, he must find a way in the debates to challenge Obama's standing on the issue. So many of the states remain close, according to recent polls, that both sides are right to assume that that this race could be a battle to the end. But it seemed clear the day the government let Lehman Brothers go bankrupt and the Dow dropped 500 points that McCain could suffer politically. The economic crisis has further soured the public mood. President Bush's approval rating in a series of state polls released this week has taken another dip. Those facts are dead weights on McCain's shoulders, and the Post-ABC poll suggests they are taking a toll. That makes the debates more important than ever. For McCain, the first one can't arrive soon enough.