To: MJ who wrote (48728 ) 9/25/2008 11:49:59 AM From: Ann Corrigan 2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 224740 Wall St Journal says Race Remains Tied--WashPost poll skewed with disproportionate number of Democrats: Financial Crisis Has Little Sway in Presidential Poll Race Remains Tied as McCain, Obama Respond to Turmoil By LAURA MECKLER. Sept 25 2008 EXCERPT: WASHINGTON -- The race between Barack Obama and John McCain remains a dead heat, despite financial turmoil that has turned the nation's attention to economic issues that tend to favor the Democratic presidential candidate, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. One reason that Sen. McCain may remain competitive: The survey shows that voters have grown even angrier about the direction of country than they were over the summer, a sentiment that the Arizona lawmaker has appealed to with a passionate populist message. For more than a week, he has eviscerated Wall Street and Washington alike for the greed, corruption and incompetence he says lie behind the financial meltdown. Overall, the race remains essentially tied, with 48% favoring Sen. Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, and 46% favoring Sen. McCain and his vice presidential choice, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. In the last Journal poll two weeks ago, Sen. Obama had a one-point edge. The new poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. (See the full poll results.) It was conducted Sept. 19 to 22, as news of the extraordinary $700 billion Wall Street bailout proposal broke. The survey also showed a nation divided over the plan, illustrating the complex and unpredictable politics surrounding the controversial plan. In the poll, about one-third of voters said they approved, a third disapproved and a third said they didn't have any opinion at all. "It's as if the financial crisis has frozen the electorate in place -- as if someone hit the pause button on this election while we sort this out," said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducts the poll with Democratic pollster Peter Hart. The uncertainty about both candidates, and about the rapidly changing financial landscape, raises the stakes for the presidential debates, which are scheduled to start on Friday. Sen. McCain asked Wednesday afternoon that debate be postponed amid the crisis. Sen. Obama said he wanted the debate to go forward. (See related story.) Four in 10 voters said the debates will be extremely or quite important in making their decisions, more than said the same at this point in either of the past two elections. A near-record 73% of voters said the nation is off on the wrong track, up six points from just last month. More people think the nation is in a "state of decline." Nearly eight in 10 voters think the nation is in a recession and most of them think the worst of it is yet to come. And public opinion ticked down for every public figure and institution the poll asked about, including President George W. Bush, Sens. McCain and Obama and both political parties. It makes the electorate ripe for Sen. McCain's populist message, Mr. Hart said, recalling the classic movie, "Network," where TV news anchor Howard Beale urges viewers to proclaim, "I'm as mad as hell and I'm not going to take this anymore." "John McCain has become the Howard Beale of this election," Mr. Hart said. The survey finds that Sen. Obama has lost ground with the independent voters who will be crucial to the outcome of the election. They now favor Sen. McCain by 13 percentage points, up from eight points two weeks ago. In early September, just after both parties' conventions, half of independent voters had a positive image of Sen. Obama; now it's just 39%. Independents were also less likely to say they could identify with his background and values than they were in early September. And nearly half of all voters -- 45% -- said they think that Sen. Obama would raise taxes on middle-income people, even though he has promised not to, a sign that Sen. McCain's attacks on taxes are working. It all combines to keep the election very competitive with less than six weeks to go. The Journal/NBC News poll comes a day after a national poll conducted for the Washington Post and ABC News found Sen. Obama with a nine-point lead. Mr. Hart, the Journal's Democratic pollster, argued that these results were skewed because their sample included a disproportionate number of Democrats. Democrats had a 16-point advantage in the Post/ABC poll, which is considerably higher than most polls have found historically and even this year. —Easha Anand contributed to this story. Write to Laura Meckler at laura.meckler@wsj.com www.wsj.com