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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (32162)	9/25/2008 11:03:41 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78704

Of course I am biased but I dont see how gutting wm at this juncture and selling off assets and branches to jp morgan at a ridiculously low price makes any sense at all as a tax payer. I expect some high ranking regulator will be going to work for JPM soon enough in some capacity. I still say that once the details of the bankruptcy becoming known an offer for the whole bank might have been forthcoming. Now who is going to work off all these problem loans. whatever governmental agency it is will be overwhelmed pretty fast. now what about the next failure. Besides the shareholders and the preferred shareholder thats $30 billion in senior debt going down the tubes most likely. Its gonna be pretty hard for banks to sell debt or preferred shares now unless you are in the top 5 or 10. Its gonna be a long time before I put money in a US bank stock again. I think this may mark the end of the banking system as we know it.

To: E_K_S who wrote (32162)	9/25/2008 11:11:28 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78704

I disagree on the banks - I think survivors will do really well in 5-10 year timeframes. Competition will be decimated, they will merge a lot of branches and get a lot of benefits of size, while starting a new bank will be tough and even the conventional banking will bring a lot of profits. So I will stay in BAC, WFC and perhaps reenter USB + maybe GS and JPM. But MSFT and ORCL are probably good bets too. Both of them may somewhat benefit by credit crunch hitting the intermediate size tech companies that need money to grow and can't get VC funding or IPO. In fact, BDCs already are in a crunch and they do fund some tech companies (although perhaps inferior ones). I would like to see MSFT to become more like IBM though, since I think they will have difficulty in maintaining Windows/Office market share although both of these will be significant cash cows for foreseeable future. Somehow MSFT needs to get more of a culture where even smaller parts have to be profitable and on top of their game. Right now, although I understand the importance of fight of MSFT in web and music player spaces, I am not very happy about the resources poured there with little return. There are some parts of MSFT that have that culture though. In short, I hold MSFT. I never bought ORCL, but I think Paul was right to buy it. In fact, I probably would prefer both ORCL or MSFT to his UTX purchace (to answer his question about what high margin mega caps I would prefer ;)). I still like GRMN in tech area and CSCO is also not that expensive. GLW is perhaps more crapshoot although cheap.

To: E_K_S who wrote (32162)	9/26/2008 1:00:33 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78704

NYB would be a sell in my playbook. NYC (or is it only Manhattan) so far had a healthy RE market but now with the financial crises and many high paying jobs probably gone forever I think we are going to see a substantial fall in NY real estate prices. this situation is going to cause much more devastation than 9/11, IMO. They made a very smart move issuing equity in May when the credit market thawed. Still, I expect NYC RE loan chargeoffs to skyrocket. That cannot be good for a bank like NYB.