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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (11830)	9/26/2008 12:04:40 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 71456

Addendum to Faber interview i viewed early this morning via London , in face of latest revised GDP figure to+ 2.8%, Faber stated to NOT recognize U.S.Data as credible. And saying "The U.S. is already in a recession and it will continue to worsen." We here most all know that but i want bring out in his newsletter he references John Williams, and respects his work. Max

To: LTK007 who wrote (11830)	9/27/2008 9:54:44 AM
From: TH	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

Hello Max, First, it is not always easy to fully respond to a <Max> post <g> You cover a lot of ground my friend. First, it is difficult to discuss the inflation/deflation debate unless both parties are in agreement on what those terms mean. And there is the problem with much of the discussion on SI. I have long held that deflation is a very real possibility, but I'm interested in trading, and before we reach the deflationary implosion, I think every effort will be made to continue the monetary policy of the Fed/USA; which is to inflate/expand/fabricate/change-the-rules and KEEP THE GAME GOING. Faber is an interesting cat, and I understand his point. Again, are we discussing what is <next> from this point in time, or are we talking about the ultimate end result of this American experiment? Again, how can one have a discussion about inflation/deflation unless one fixes events at a point in time? And there is another problem, and that is degree or intensity of policy actions. The discussion is not so black and white in terms of what is the policy of right now and how long it will last until there is a reversal. Ben is gaming the system both ways until the market screams murder. At some point (and I don't know when that is) the oscillation ends and no more priming the system with the fast and easy money will move it. Deflation arrives and in force. At that point the hyperinflation scenario becomes a real possibility, but will that path really be taken by intelligent people that absolutely know the result? I am not so sure. So, I am open to discussion about deflation always, it is just that I do not think we are at the end game stage where we can say this is here now, and there are no more choices in the near-term. My focus is on trading positions from big moves. I believe gold is at maybe the mid-point of the big move, so I'll let the bullion ride and trade the miners for fun and profit. If I sit around and wait for deflation, with the knowledge that Ben has not played all his cards, don't I miss some of that fun and profit on the miners, or god forbid, even the financials (not that I am interested in that crap shoot)? In the end the US ponzi fails, but then we will be looking at two broad ideas; where else in the world can I find a real return today and what do I invest in stateside as the rebuilding begins? As for bonds being a confirmation of deflation, I am in complete agreement that recycle demand from the vendor financing of the Chinese and others has created artificial demand relative to what the normal demand would be based on a real return. GT TH