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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Pitera who wrote (10096)9/27/2008 11:50:51 PM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 33421
 
Marc Faber Says $5 Trillion Needed for U.S. Financial Bailout

By [bn:PRSN=1] Jeremy Naylor [] and Ben Sills

Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. in Hong Kong, said the U.S. government's rescue package for the financial system may require as much as $5 trillion, seven times the amount Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has requested.

U.S. lawmakers will meet again today in a bid to reach agreement on Paulson's $700 billion rescue. Republicans are resisting the plan to buy troubled assets because they say it would force taxpayers to bail out financiers.

``The $700 billion is really nothing,'' Faber said in a television interview. ``The treasury is just giving out this figure when the end figure may be $5 trillion.''

Republican lawmakers offered a plan calling for Wall Street firms to purchase insurance on mortgage-backed securities and advocating tax cuts and relaxed regulations. Treasury officials had previously rejected an insurance approach in favor of one that purchased troubled assets, Virginia Republican Eric Cantor said.

President George W. Bush said Sept. 24 the U.S. faces ``a long and painful'' recession and will suffer ``financial panic'' unless the plan is approved.

``The decline in home prices of 20 percent is a relatively minor decline so far and it has created so many problems,'' Faber added. ``The US is in much worse shape'' than Japan was when its stock market crash ushered in a decade-long slump in 1990.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sills in Madrid at bsills@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 26, 2008 07:33 EDT

---------------------------

Message 24645895

Thus, in a severe credit crisis, the potential losses on credit derivatives may indeed approach the same fraction of total exposure that the $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion of potential home mortgage losses bears to the $12 billion of home mortgages outstanding. The ultimate loss would then be not 10% of $12 trillion, but 10% of $62.3 trillion or $6.23 trillion,

-------------------------------------

To: stomper who wrote (9293) 5/3/2008 2:17:16 AM
From: John Pitera Read Replies (1) of 10097

Marie Antoinette is reputed to have said Let them Eat Cake

I say Liqudity for everyone...... Viva liquidité

I am proud to live in these exciting times when we have our friendly central bankers who can display the true extent of their ability to monetize everything under the sun.

and I guess word may be getting around about my 10 TRILLION dollar contraction in the Credit Default Swaps market. -g-

Maybe the CB's can get far enough ahead of the curve to keep that from happening. These days can the really sharp monetary analysts and theorists even have an type of consensus reality as to what exactly are the Monetary Agregates, in our Global Economy .....what are their growth rates.

12 months from now we can probably say what they were now.

And how do you keep track of the Monetary base, rates of growth---

and then we've got the velocity of the Money supply and Fed Head Ben B's own coined term of the monetary decelerator.

well let's go to the video.... and check in on Jeremy Grantham's latest little missive in the FT.

---------------------------------------------

Message 24557084

my comment of a 10 Trillion dollar contraction in the Credit Default Swaps market...

Fed needs tough chief in Paul Volcker mould By Jeremy Grantham
Tue Apr 29, 3:50 PM ET

What got us into our financial pickle? Most academics are prisoners of the Efficient Market Hypothesis that assumes man acts rationally and efficiently in economic matters in ways that can be caught in elegant mathematical models. Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, shares this view completely, and Alan Greenspan, his predecessor, when it suits him. In such a convenient world, there can be no bubbles and no crashes. A related belief is that sensible, disciplined control of money supply will drive away all ills, including the madness of crowds, and, therefore, a sensible central banker is all powerful.

Unfortunately, both concepts are complete illusions. First, we live in a behavioural jungle where markets can crash 23 per cent in a day without any defining event, price/earnings ratios in Japan can rise to 65 times and the value of land under the Emperor's palace really can equal California's. Second, central bankers do not always do the right thing, often because that would involve great career risk. Being slapped by a Senate subcommittee for saying "irrational exuberance" is bad enough. Taking away punch bowls and risking being seen as holding the pin when the bubble pops is even more dangerous stuff. (No doubt about that --ed jp)

The world seems to think the Fed has substantial power to influence the real economy. Its tools, though, are not nearly as effective as believed. It controls short rates that influence banking profits and perhaps a little increase or decrease in debt. But long-term growth depends on education, supply of workers, capital spending, and technology, over none of which the Fed has any control.

Yet the market can go up 5 per cent in a week because of an unanticipated drop of 25 basis points in interest rates. Such power as the Fed has rests on its jawboning and supply of moral hazard.

Both Mr Bernanke and Mr Greenspan have trouble seeing bubbles. When Mr Bernanke describes an 80-year US housing bubble as "merely reflecting a strong US economy", we might wonder about his statisticians or his competence. But, really, it is about belief. He is not looking for bubbles to exist in his theoretical world.

Not believing in bubbles and/or being unwilling to risk unpopularity by moving against them leaves the two Fed bosses with no alternative but to give free rein to speculators on the upside and focus on the downside. But, even on the downside, did they have to be so generous?

It created an extreme form of moral hazard: it allowed risk takers to win too big and too easily; it helped spawn a huge hedge fund industry; and, worse still, it helped turn formerly discreet bankers into speculators. If you even partially bail out Bear Stearns - leveraged at 40 to 1 - next time someone will try 50 to 1.

The Fed must show some backbone. If you always take the friendly way out, no bubbles will ever be pricked and we shall always be reacting to crises in an increasingly speculative world. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman before Mr Greenspan, had the character to do tough, unpleasant things where necessary. His two successors have not.

Both men were in a position to be powerful naggers in protecting financial standards; to question the quality of new financial instruments, not praise their ingenuity as Mr Greenspan did; and to question and review mortgage quality and off balance sheet financing. None of this nagging was done.

Finally, when shall we stop appointing as Fed chairmen either academic economists - out of touch with the messy real world? - or lightweight commercial economists and find someone with solid banking experience? Would a banker with even a hint of John Pierpont Morgan in him have allowed such a sad deterioration of credit and banking standards? Where was Mr Volcker when we needed him? Fired for doing unpleasant but necessary things. So perhaps we get the Fed we deserve. Let me end with Mr Greenspan's full and contrite repentance: "I have no regrets on any of the Federal Reserve's policies that we initiated back then."

What can you say to that?

Jeremy Grantham is the chairman and chief strategist of fund manager GMO.

---------

small technical note.... it's actually Junius Pierpont Morgan (the Legend) who was born around 1837 and die shortly after the famed CUJO commission inquiry conducted by Congress. Interesting his dad who's middle name was Spenser actually wanted his name taken off the name of the bank with a proscribed period of time after his death.

>



To: John Pitera who wrote (10096)9/28/2008 7:57:38 AM
From: ggersh  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Johm thanks for your perspective...obviously the credit market is more important than the equity, It really doesn't matter what they do now, as all the cards have been played...

ggersh



To: John Pitera who wrote (10096)9/28/2008 9:59:04 AM
From: Pogeu Mahone  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 33421
 
Now that European banks are imploding are we goiung to bail them out also?

Regulators Seek to Increase Confidence in Fortis (Update1)

By Jurjen van de Pol and Martijn van der Starre

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Belgian and Dutch central banks and regulators were discussing measures to restore confidence in Fortis, the financial-services company whose stock plunged 35 percent in Brussels trading last week.

``We are working on enhancing the confidence in the market of the Fortis share,'' Hein Lannoy, a spokesman for the Belgian financial regulator CBFA, said today by telephone. He declined to be more specific. The parties will hold a conference call and ``if necessary there will be a physical meeting,'' Lannoy said.

Brussels and Amsterdam-based Fortis needs more capital after spending 24 billion euros ($35 billion) on ABN Amro Holding NV assets last year just as the U.S. subprime-mortgage market started to collapse. Fortis tumbled a record 20 percent two days ago, when the company picked Filip Dierckx to replace Herman Verwilst as chief executive officer. The move was aimed at reassuring investors concerned that a plan to raise 8.3 billion euros would force Fortis to sell assets at knock-down prices.

``Fortis failed to restore confidence on its own and that can only be done now with the help of the regulatory institutions or rivals,'' said Corne van Zeijl, a senior portfolio manager at SNS Asset Management in Den Bosch, the Netherlands, who oversees about 750 million euros and owns Fortis shares.

The Dutch central bank governing board met late yesterday with Finance Minister Wouter Bos, Het Financieele Dagblad and news service ANP reported.

Takeover Talks Stall

``Bos is being informed meticulously by the Dutch central bank,'' ministry spokesman Jilles Heringa said. Heringa and Herman Lutke Schipholt, a spokesman for the Dutch central bank, declined to confirm the meeting.

Talks about a takeover of Fortis by ING Groep NV and BNP Paribas SA stalled late yesterday amid demands for state guarantees, De Standaard reported on its Web site, without saying where it got the information. The Sunday Times reported the Belgian central bank and regulator are preparing to bail out Fortis. The newspaper didn't say where it got the information.

Peter Jong, a spokesman for Amsterdam-based ING, and Jonathan Mullen, a spokesman for BNP Paribas in Paris, declined to comment. Wilfried Remans, a spokesman for Fortis, also declined to comment and referred to the company's statements on Sept. 26.

Fortis last week said it had earmarked for sale banking and insurance businesses that may be valued as high as 10 billion euros. The Belgian company said it won't sell assets at fire-sale prices and doesn't have an urgent need for funds.

Asset Sales

The financial-services company said on June 26 it would sell so-called non-core assets, notes and asset-backed debt to raise money. Fortis planned to part with 2 billion euros of assets this year and next. The lender also scrapped a 1.4 billion-euro dividend and sold 1.5 billion euros of shares to investors, including Ping An Insurance (Group) Co.

Verwilst and Dierckx appeared together at an impromptu press conference in Brussels on Sept. 26 to reassure investors about the capital-raising plan.

While the company may sell more assets than it earlier expected as it becomes harder to raise money by other means, the bank's financial position is ``solid,'' Verwilst said. Customer moves at its Benelux banking unit have remained limited to less than 3 percent of assets since the start of the year, Fortis said.

Funding Base

Fortis has about 3 billion euros of bonds maturing this year and needs to refinance an additional 7 billion euros next year, said Ivan Lathouders, an analyst at Banque Degroof SA in Brussels, in a report last week.

Fortis, formed in the 1990 merger of the Dutch insurance company NV Amev, Belgian insurer AG Group and the Dutch bank VSB, said last week it had a funding base of more than 300 billion euros from sources including retail and private deposits and institutional investors.

Fortis has about 5.2 million retail customers. It employs about 85,000 people and operates 2,500 retail branches including ABN Amro.

The company reported a 49 percent decline in second-quarter profit on credit-related writedowns on Aug. 4.

The banking business's core Tier I ratio, which measures a bank's ability to absorb losses, was 7.4 percent at the end of June compared with Fortis's own target of 6 percent.

The company's structured credit portfolio, which includes collateralized debt obligations and U.S. mortgage-backed securities, amounted to 41.7 billion euros at the end of June. Fortis said Aug. 4 the pretax impact of the credit market turmoil on its earnings was 918 million euros in the first half.

Belgian and Dutch regulators restricted short-selling in the shares and derivatives of financial companies for three months last week to curtail a market rout. The rules require investors betting on a decline in stock prices to arrange to borrow the shares before selling them. The Belgian and Dutch regulators also requested investors to refrain from lending the securities.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jurjen van de Pol in Amsterdam jvandepol@bloomberg.netMartijn van der Starre in Amsterdam at vanderstarre@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 28, 2008 09:50 EDT
-----------------

U.K. to Protect Bradford & Bingley; BBC Reports Nationalization

By Poppy Trowbridge and Jon Menon

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. government will act to protect Bradford & Bingley Plc customers, Chief Whip Geoff Hoon said after the British Broadcasting Corp. reported the country's biggest lender to landlords will be taken over by the state.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling ``have worked right through this weekend to sort out the problems we're facing,'' Hoon, a parliamentary officer, told Sky News today. ``I'm confident that in due course there will be a statement from the Treasury about Bradford & Bingley. We will act to ensure that the interests of depositors are properly protected.''

The government will take control of Bradford & Bingley, whose shares have tumbled 93 percent this year, the BBC reported on its Web site, without saying where it got the information. The Treasury and Financial Services Authority will negotiate with banks interested in buying parts of the Bingley, England-based bank, the BBC said. Possible buyers include Banco Santander SA, HSBC Holdings Plc and Barclays Plc, the report said.

``It was inevitable that nationalization has been decided as the risk has been too great,'' said Howard Wheeldon, a senior strategist at BGC Partners in London. ``It's a very sensible solution.''

A spokesman for the U.K. Treasury said discussions about Bradford & Bingley are ``ongoing.'' An announcement about the company's future will be made before markets open tomorrow, he said. He declined to be identified by name, in accordance with departmental policy

Northern Rock, HBOS

A voicemail message left on the cellphone of Bradford & Bingley spokesman Tony McGarahan today wasn't immediately answered. Late yesterday, he said the company was working with regulators ``to clarify the bank's future.''

The nationalization of Britain's biggest lender to landlords would follow Northern Rock Plc's in February and a government- assisted takeover of HBOS Plc, as banks struggle with funding amid the seizure of credit markets. U.S. lawmakers today said they made a breakthrough in talks on a $700 billion plan to buy assets from financial companies affected by a record number of home foreclosures, in an effort to revive credit markets.

Nationalization is ``a necessary move to maintain stability,'' said Mamoun Tazi, an analyst at MF Global Securities Ltd in London. ``Bradford & Bingley is unable to fund itself in the current environment because there's not enough money being lent between banks.''

Landlords

Almost half of Bradford & Bingley's 42 billion pounds ($77 billion) of loans in the first half were to landlords, bringing its share of the U.K. buy-to-let market to 19 percent. About 17 percent of the bank's loans go to customers who certify their own income on application and typically have a higher level of default than standard borrowers. Bad debts in the first half jumped to 74.6 million pounds, from 5.3 million pounds last year.

Bradford & Bingley's shares fell as the credit crunch made it impossible to find funds for new loans and day-to-day operation.

Deposits at the bank amount to only slightly more than half of loans outstanding, which means it depends on capital markets for about half of its financing. Bradford & Bingley was forced to curtail new business when those markets dried up and the cost of inter-bank borrowing soared causing banks to hoard cash following the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage-market.

David Cameron, leader of the opposition Conservatives, interviewed on the BBC's Andrew Marr television show today, refused to be drawn on whether his party would oppose nationalization, as it did earlier this year in the case of Northern Rock. ``We will look at it like a responsible opposition,'' he said. ``What matters most of all is safeguarding the depositors.''

Housing Slump

``People will wonder why on earth the British taxpayer is being asked by Gordon Brown to bear the full risk,'' Conservative Treasury spokesman George Osborne told Sky News. Vince Cable, treasury spokesman of the Liberal Democrats, told Sky that nationalization was the ``least worst option.''

Bradford & Bingley has been hurt by the worst British housing slump in 30 years, which has seen house prices decline for a fourth month in September. U.K. mortgage approvals fell to the lowest level in at least a decade in August, according to the British Bankers' Association.

The sliding housing market has pushed up Bradford & Bingley's late mortgage payments to more than 2 percent of all loans. That compares with the U.K. average of 0.5 percent, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

Share Price

The lender was formed in 1964 as a result of the merger of the Bradford Equitable Building Society and the Bingley Building Society, both of which were established in 1851. It first sold shares on the London Stock Exchange in December 2000.

Bradford & Bingley, worth 3.2 billion pounds in March 2006, closed at 20 pence on Sept. 26 in London trading, valuing the bank at 256 million pounds. That's less than half the price it asked shareholder to pay for the 828 million shares it sold at 55 pence apiece in an August rights offering that was snubbed by almost three quarters of its investors.

The U.K. government took control of Newcastle-based lender Northern Rock after it was bailed out by the central bank last September. HBOS agreed to be bought by Lloyds TSB Group Plc for 11 billion pounds on Sept. 17, assisted by a government waiver of competition rules.

In the U.S., officials seized Washington Mutual Inc., the country's biggest failed bank, and sold its assets and branches on Sept. 26 to New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jon Menon in London at jmenon1@bloomberg.netPoppy Trowbridge in London at ptrowbridge@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 28, 2008 08:07 EDT

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To: John Pitera who wrote (10096)9/28/2008 11:52:17 AM
From: robert b furman1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
HI John,

My thoughts and not quite so armageddon like(smile):

Message 25000699

Another market force:

Message 24999935

Another really good bump to the market price - time value adjusted cashflow with a 600 basis point margin.-not bad.

Message 25000225

Bob

Would value your thoughts.