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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (151555)	9/28/2008 1:18:05 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

from denninger's site: Mathematics FAIL Paulson / Bernanke Bailout Plan Known Facts United States non-financial private debt is $32.4 trillion dollars and household debt is $10.0 trillion as of 2Q 2008.1 This encompasses mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, HELOCs, commercial and industrial loans, LBO monies outstanding and all other forms of non-financial (e.g. not including margin loans and similar) debt. Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke have asked for a $700 billion “revolving credit line” with which to buy “troubled” assets. Congress is strongly considering giving it to Mr. Paulson with some set of conditions. The assertion has been made by both Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke that absent this credit line and absorption of these “troubled” assets, the financial markets will imminently seize and fail. The assertion has been made that the taxpayer will not recognize large losses and might make a profit. House prices are projected to fall by another 15-30% nationally (depending on who you ask); therefore, whatever level of stress exists in the system today far more will exist over the next few years. Mathematics $700 billion dollars is 2.16% of all non-financial private debt and 7% of all household debt. Provision of this credit line therefore would allow removal of a maximum of just over 2% of the current non- financial private debt from the banking system, assuming only US domiciled debt is included. If the imminent failure of the United States financial system is going to be averted by 2.16% (maximum) of the outstanding private non-financial debt being removed from the banks’ hands and transferred to the taxpayer as the “responsible party”, then the system is under leverage of 46.29:1. If, as many have projected, the actual losses to be sustained are $2.5-3 trillion in residential housing and a like amount among commercial real estate, credit cards and LBO loans, then the aggregate requirement is not $700 billion – it is in the neighborhood of five to nine times what has been requested. If this is the case the aggregate requirement is double the US Federal Budget. The government cannot raise that amount. Conclusions Either (1) the system is not about to fail imminently OR (2) it will fail irrespective of whether this bill passes, as the actual amount required to “resolve” the problem exceeds the government’s ability to finance it. If no failure is imminent then we are giving $700 billion to the people who caused the mess for no purpose other than enriching them. If the latter then we need the $700 billion for social programs and other spending that will become necessary as we work through a financial collapse and crisis worse than anything since the 1930s. EITHER WAY THIS BILL IS UNSUPPORTABLE IN ANY FORM; THE MATH DOES NOT LIE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR A FULL PAGE AD IN USA TODAY AND/OR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL LISTING THOSE WHO CAN’T DO BASIC MATH?

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (151555)	9/28/2008 1:22:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 306849

We know the first three thieves so we're supposed to rely of this guy to stand up for us... === Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez Carlos M. Gutierrez is the 35th Secretary of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the voice of business in government. The former chairman of the board and chief executive officer of Kellogg Company, Secretary Gutierrez is a core member of President Bush’s economic team. In nominating Mr. Gutierrez, President Bush said, "He understands the world of business, from the first rung on the ladder to the very top. He knows exactly what it takes to help American businesses grow and to create jobs." A top priority for Secretary Gutierrez is prying open global markets for U.S. companies so they can continue innovating and competing to build a stronger American economy. The Secretary regularly travels internationally to visit with foreign government and business leaders to discuss ways to enhance trade and promote U.S. exports. He played a key role in the passage of CAFTA-DR, a landmark agreement that strips away trade barriers, expands export opportunities and boosts hope and opportunity throughout Latin America. He believes passionately in President Bush’s vision of a 21st century where America is the best country in the world to do business and where everyone has the opportunity to experience the joy and pride of living the American Dream. "We have the best people, we have the training, we have the culture," Gutierrez says. "I believe the 21st century is really and truly the American century." Secretary Gutierrez oversees a diverse Cabinet agency with some 38,000 workers and a $6.8 billion budget focused on promoting American business at home and abroad. His Department gathers vast quantities of economic and demographic data to measure the health and vitality of the economy, promotes U.S. exports, enforces international trade agreements and regulates the export of sensitive goods and technologies. Commerce also issues patents and trademarks, protects intellectual property, forecasts the weather, conducts oceanic and atmospheric research, provides stewardship over living marine resources, develops and applies technology, measurements and standards, formulates telecommunications and technology policy, fosters minority business development and promotes economic growth in distressed communities. As co-chair for the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, Secretary Gutierrez is actively involved in U.S. - Cuba policy. He is a strong advocate for the Bush Administration’s policy of helping the Cuban people hasten the day of their freedom from dictatorship. Secretary Gutierrez is also one of the President’s point men on comprehensive immigration reform, an issue he sees as one of the greatest domestic social issues of our time. He believes a successful immigration solution must focus first on securing our borders, but must also address immigrants contribution to our economy and the importance of American unity. Secretary Gutierrez was sworn into office on February 7, 2005. Born in Havana, Cuba in 1953, he came to the United States with his family in 1960. In 1975 he joined Kellogg as a sales representative. Rising to president and chief executive officer in 1999, he was the youngest CEO in the company’s nearly 100-year history. In April 2000, he was named chairman of the board of Kellogg Company. Secretary Gutierrez studied business administration at the Monterrey Institute of Technology in Queretaro, Mexico. He and his wife, Edilia, have three children, Carlos, Erika and Karina.