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To: Trumptown who wrote (375205)	9/29/2008 4:15:20 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

i smell dow 5000. lol

To: Trumptown who wrote (375205)	9/29/2008 4:22:08 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

AH's?

To: Trumptown who wrote (375205)	9/29/2008 4:59:44 PM
From: stan_hughes	10 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Nothing goes down in a straight line, but credit is shrinking globally, oil prices are falling, copper and the other base metals are falling, the US consumer is broke and Uncle Sam might soon join him, the Euro banks are next on the hit list, and the rest of the developed and semi-developed world (including the previously thought to be invulnerable BRIC) are all in the same leaky macroeconomic boat IMO those observations say that a coincident global recession is well underway that will take years to play out before all the excesses get removed and a new equilibrium takes hold, BWTFDIK, maybe that's just me I bet a lot of people who bought shares all the way down during 1930, 1931 and 1932 probably thought they were getting a bargain too jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com Oh, you can still win if you're really good at it, but IMO you play a market like this from the long side at your complete and utter peril. One has to seriously ask one's self why several trillion dollars continues to flow out of stocks daily and head for the hills when US GDP is supposedly still positive and unemployment is still only a benign 6% or so. Do you think all that money might be seeing something bad headed this way? That would be one explanation, but that would also imply the fleeing money might come back one day (as it always has over the past 50 and especially the last 20 years), except in our present case of 2008, the money that is exiting financial instruments is leaving mostly due to credit deflation, i.e. it is being permanently destroyed by ripping down both sides of the balance sheet of the banks and the hedge funds and all the other actors on this stage as they are forced to delever and sell out for lack of cash or credit to retain their positions, no matter how valuable they think their holdings are, or how rosy they think the economic outlook is (which BTW it isn't). No access to money = no can play Such money, once destroyed, cannot and does not return to fuel the typical V-type recovery everyone under age 70 is used to seeing -- no, after the mass liquidations are largely concluded, what you will get is an L-shaped, whimpering, "I'm never going to buy another stock as long as I live" market instead, one that in all likelihood will last for years. So even if you do pick the exact bottom, you gain nothing going forward except maybe the divvies from any businesses still standing, but picking those in advance might be tricky So are you still sure you want to buy this thing? IMO the greatest hope one could dream for in buying this market is that the next president adopts the Zimbabwe approach and finishes off the country for good by trying to print their way out of the box and bringing on hyper-inflation -- the Dow will surely print a close of 50 trillion under that scenario, but I don't think you'll be very happy about it -- better that the next administration work on fixing things during the L-shaped years and try to induce a new heartbeat IMO Anyways, no more lecturing by me -- people are going to do whatever they're going to do