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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (12079)	9/30/2008 7:31:50 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 71456

I suspect quite a few hedge funds were wiped out Yesterday.

To: TH who wrote (12079)	9/30/2008 3:21:05 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 71456

i can only say Faber is pragmatist. He is ultra very bearish the dollar in the future tense. But he is NOT bearish the dollar now. My view, why the dollar is behaving as it is, it does NOT matter why.(That is the pragmatist in me speaking, i am NOT always that person(vbg:) As long as it does NOT significantly separate itself to the DOWNSIDE from being seemingly glued to the 50ma, it will NOT go bust. Two, the most important indicator for breakdowns and breakouts for USD is 200ma. Charts easily confirm that statement. Max

To: TH who wrote (12079)	10/1/2008 12:08:03 AM
From: RJA_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

Its going to take IMHO, taking delivery on the COMEX. Here is how you take delivery: Message 25012236 "If you want to break it, your going to have to take it." Be patriotic and bust em.

To: TH who wrote (12079)	10/2/2008 1:31:38 PM
From: LTK007	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71456

Faber gives some history of USD price action and why he has been invested bull side the dollar since at least May. The key thing he states is don't look for logic. This is an excerpt from his newest news letter, the news letter was 14 pages long. i can not go beyond this selected excerpt, but just add, one in the FUTURE TENSE he remains quite bearish the dollar, and as ever keeps recommending the accumulatioon of PHYSICAL gold(those that can do this). Boldface added by me. Also two charts i am not able to post that was relevant to his words. << www.gloomboomdoom.com © Copyright 2008 by Marc Faber Limited - All rights reserved But enough academic talk! More important for us are the investment implications of the bailout plan (no matter how poorly designed) and the increasingly poor economic conditions around the world. Recently, a reader of this comment (I read all emails I receive), suggested that there is no logic in my call for a stronger US dollar. I think I have tried to demonstrate in earlier reports that in an environment of a relative shrinking global liquidity (declining US current account deficit) the US dollar should strengthen. However, I should also like to point out that in the world of investments logic should be used only very carefully. For instance, there is no logic in my mind why the Nikkei rose in 1989 to 39,000, why Hong Kong property prices continued to rise into 1997, why the NASDAQ rose above 5,000 in March 2000 and why the recent Damien Hirst sale was such a success. In fact, I need to admit that thinking logically cost me a fortune in 1999 because I had shorted high tech stocks already in 1998! Also, if you try to understand women logically you will never understand them – now I know that I shall again receive hundreds of emails about not being “politically correct” but trust me; I love them and I speak from some modest experience. I also have to admit that men are no better. As Charles McKay already observed at the beginning of the 19th century, “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; Dr. Marc Faber Market Commentary October 1, 2008 www.gloomboomdoom.com Page 9 of 14 © Copyright 2008 by Marc Faber Limited - All rights reserved it will be seen that they go mad in herds while they recover their senses slowly and one by one.” Markets can simply move in a direction that seems illogical to us. Take as an example the correlation between US fiscal imbalances and the US dollar. According to Deutsche Bank, there have been two regimes of correlation between US fiscal balance and the dollar: negative -0.63 during 1973-1988 and positive +0.42 since 1988, thereby supporting both views that larger deficits can result in a weaker or a stronger dollar (see Figure 4) Figure 4: Correlation between US Fiscal Balance and USD, 1973 - 2008regimes of correlation between US fiscal balance and Source: Deutsche Bank Similarly, the US current account deficit exploded between 1981 and 1986 and the US dollar strengthened while after 1986 the current account deficit shrank and the dollar weakened. I suppose that market movements depend largely on the starting point of a market. In 1979, the USD was grossly undervalued and oversold and in 1985 it was grossly overvalued and overbought. Other important factors are of course interest rate differentials, which worked in favor of the USD between 1979 and 1985. But what I want to emphasize is that whereas in the very long run markets are probably rational and their movements logical, in the short to intermediate term they can be irrational and illogical.>>