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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (32263)	10/2/2008 12:37:46 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78996

MIC Distribution yield indicates a crash&burn.. It very well might. Stock is still too expensive. Their EBITDA was about 40M$ last quarter, annualized that is 160M$. Same "store" EBITDA is down YOY. 1.5B$ debt. 60% of their EBITDA is consumed serving debt. This is not the sort of stock you want to own right now. Yahoo numbers seem about right: finance.yahoo.com My verdict is that it's overpriced at 12x EBITDA. If you value it more realistically at 10x EBITDA, the equity is worth zero. Plenty of MLP's with less leverage can be had for <10x EBTIDA. Airport companies can be purchased for 7-8x EBITDA. once they refinance their debt (have not looked at their debt maturity schedule), the debt service easily can eat up their EBITDA completely and then the equity is toast. I think the whole Macquarie model ( buy stable infrastructure assets , lever them up, package and sell them, rinse and repeat) is unworkable in the current credit restricted environment.