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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SG who wrote (12323)	10/4/2008 10:24:35 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 71456

It's not that simple with fiat currency - both processes are under way, debt liquidation and monetization. We had a major winter breeze yet to be met with monetization. Note that treating gold and silver as commodities during hard times is a mistake, those are money. Right now there are 2 processes - liquidation of futures positions by speculators and extreme hoarding of physical metals that usually accompanies bad times. As a result, physical shortage. The puzzle should resolve itself into a major spike up, IMHO, and it seems the opportunity is here now. I see more risk shorting than owning gold at this point, but I could be wrong.

To: SG who wrote (12323)	10/4/2008 10:49:16 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 71456

Here is some Voodoo - from Jesse jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com Saying the markets may be close to a tradable bottom, while the dollar may be close to a tradable high. Nothing's for granted. I just see a potential opportunity in gold/silver right now a better risk/reward than short these markets, which I confess I was last week, but no more. <G> I see a similar extreme record short speculator positions in the Eur/USD, which could unwind quite sharply as soon as liquidity conditions improve (you bet the Feds are onto this libor thing!!!) That, and extreme tightness of physical precious metals markets (makes them a candidate for a large spurt up.) In my view DOW/Gold ratio will keep going down until they meet somewhere. It definitely won't be at 800, probably won't be at 3000 either. It could even be at 10K or 20K. I hope it does not happen at 10,000,000, cause that would be the ultimate nightmare... As for fundamentals and what's REALLY happening (Mish is wrong) - here is excellent reads from Jesse I happen to completely agree with: jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com