Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (154186)	10/4/2008 4:09:23 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

heres the worst one I have found. This one has to be worth almost nothing. secinfo.com Each of these lists the following data (I have found from my hunt and peck method). - maturity - loan to value - % subprime, alt-a, prime etc - credit score of borrower - state where asset is located. I found one trust that listed the zipcode of the asset but that was so huge it wouldn't even upload into an excel spreadsheet. I think most of them just list the state. Take the total percentages of each of these, and devalue ALL subprime to zero, all loan to value over 80% to zero and all maturity over 360 months to zero. I don't do anything with the credit scores, I don't think those matter. If you can find any with state locations of these with midwest states or MI or some others where real estate tends to lag, devalue those to zero. That leaves you with some percentage of the asset with 15 year maturity (those are refis and typically low loan to value so probably good), any loan to value 60% or under which are probably good, the Alt-A prime is typically good (those are small business owners with a lot to lose if they default, Alt-A prime is pretty much one class of people), and in some cases if there are zipcodes listed, take out the high value zipcodes like beverly hills, santa barbara and SF. I haven't found EVEN ONE trust that had an average weghted loan to value ratio over 80%. Thats because they bundle in these refi's where old people refi their house with a lower rate in the mix. This particular highly toxic trust has a weighted avg loan to value of 73.79%. therefore somebody in here has a loan for something in the 60% range for their house. Those people aren't going to default. The problem is there is no way to separate out the wheat from the chaff here or any other of these trusts. What the fed needs to do is buy this for .20, chop it up and separate out the good loans. If they were buying these for .60, that would be a different story but buying a toxic portfolio with a weighted avg loan to value of 73% for something under .30 on the dollar is not that bad of a deal. Just doing a quick glance, the state breakdown in the front of the doc has NY loans at 6% of the portfolio and an original loan to value of 66%. Those loans are good. That means 6 cents on the dollar is valid here. But this is just me hunting around. I would love to know what I'm missing here.