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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (78558)	10/4/2008 9:41:40 PM
From: HerbVic	Respond to of 213176

Which incidentally I think - and this is IMO stuff - is the plan for the cash. Namely, I expect AAPL to be taken private. Interesting theory. Where do the beaten down stock holders see fit to give up their shares? -=-=-=-=- This, to the rest of the board and you, WLD. The market, IMHO, is at this level due to a run on deposits ... nearly everywhere ... but especially in hedge funds. Every funds manager in every corner of the market is raising cash to meet the demand imposed by nervous investors. That means lots of selling. It's not because of any certainty of a recession. It's because of the wild speculation of a banking crisis taking down the world's economy. It's on every front page, prime news show, and completely dominates the chatter on CNBC. A $700B cash infusion plan to the banking sector to make a market in unwanted real estate backed securities was sold to congress through scare tactics in the headlines. How do you expect people to react? The commercial banks, for the most part, are in excellent shape. The credit markets were getting shaky, but some institutions are still loaning money. Let's face it, when you go from giving away money to any Tom, Dick or Harry willy nilly to actually doing due diligence, the number of loans will decrease and for good measure. Do we really want to loosen credit to the point of making mortgage capital available to the homeless again? This is the perfect storm of financial instability. We have an election year, pork happy politicians, and an out of control rush to cash in on freely available bailout money from Uncle Sam. The banking system's wobbly legs is at the root cause of all the trouble and strife in the markets. Their irresponsible financial behavior along with Detroit, California, New York, etc... all have common underpinnings of not being prepared for coming economic changes. Rule changes. Real estate clearing markets financed by Uncle Sam. Failures and takeovers. Even bailouts. They all go toward tightening those legs that support the wobbly institutions. The economy was fine up until now except for the sore spots that are being lathered with salve. I have the strangest feeling that the highly anticipated "recession" will happen much like the take down of AAPL on the rumor SJ was rushed to the hospital, only on a much grander scale. The money fleeing the market will come right back in ... when it is learned that the sky is not falling, China is still selling us cheap consumer goods, exports are still climbing, job loss is soon followed by newly created jobs, real estate is affordable again, and banks are no longer failing due to over leveraging and crazy rules of applying short term valuations to long term assets. Right now investors are staring into the abyss, and it is frightening. But the only reason they are looking that direction is because the banks wanted them to so they could get their prize package from Congress. The real estate supply side bubble is not retired yet, but this little potency problem on the demand side is getting better. It's still going to take several years to clear the imbalance, but it will happen. In the meantime, that imbalance doesn't have to mean that the rest of the economy has to die. And, it wont. 2009 is to be a growth year (especially in the markets), a comeback from the brink year, a find our footing in the new world economy year, a return to sanity year. Good luck to all longs. IMHO, that's how you play this market and this stock.

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (78558)	10/4/2008 11:19:10 PM
From: Cogito	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213176

>>Which incidentally I think - and this is IMO stuff - is the plan for the cash. Namely, I expect AAPL to be taken private.<< WLD - You think Apple has been accumulating cash so that they can take the company private after it falls to 50 bucks a share? Wow. That would be a hell of a plan. And here I thought management wanted the stock price to go up. Anyway, I don't get how using the company's own cash to take it private would work. It's the shareholders money, so who is it who would take that money, pay off the shareholders, and then own the company? And by the way, if the stock were at 50, Apple's market cap would still be over 44 billion dollars. So someone who controlled, say, 51% of the shares would still find himself a bit short in trying to pay off the other shareholders. There are a few flaws in that plan, I think. - Allen