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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (12366)	10/5/2008 7:30:16 AM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71479

Yes, for now. Treasuries did lose purchasing power as well, especially of short duration. T-bills currently severely underperform inflation that Mish denies exsists. The short end is fixed by the Fed. The long end is fixed by leveraging off Fed-fixed short end into the long end through swaps. It does not mean treasuries are any good. I WAS invested in treasuries myself, a bit. They are safer than stocks. If hyperinflation comes, treasuries will be the worst performers. The bond crash is coming, so Mish is setting up his followers for a good beating <g> I'm not trying to attract any followers or compete with Mish, I don't care. I just seek safety and a REASONABLE analysis, which Mish's stuff is not. I like Jesse's blog, a lot. I like Doug Noland's stuff, a lot. The prediction of currency demise is there. We had it quite a bit, and more is on the way, unless the policies of pushing even more credit into overleveraged economy are abandoned. The latest bailout package is fundamentally very bad for the US dollar and the treasuries.

To: NOW who wrote (12366)	10/5/2008 7:47:33 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71479

I don't really care what Mish says anymore. He somehow claimed that surging food and oil price is deflation. Geez. The guy is nuts. Treasuries ARE safer than bank deposits. That's why they run now. Period. They are NOT safe against the loss of purchasing power. P.S. I just put that mises institute article in the head of the thread. It clarified a lot of stuff in my head, which is always disordered from this inflation/deflation debate <G> I am not an economist, nor do I know much economics, my speciality (Ph.D.) is solid state physics (which is why I do understand math behind derivatives), but deflationary crisis in a financial economy that already produces little and imports everything from China just makes little sense to me. The bailout bill just killed our manufacturing FURTHER. IMHO. They are trying to push MORE credit into an overextended system and a distorted economy that already produces little real stuff. They will get HYPERINFLATION out of it if they succeed!!! T-bond holders will then lose everything. P.P.S. I think bank rates in Zimbabwe are 10-15%. Needless to say, ... <G>

To: NOW who wrote (12366)	10/5/2008 8:01:20 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 71479

Some of Mish's stuff is very good, I admit! But boy is he arrogant towards folks claiming hyperinflation is a possibility. Deflation is like a "religion" to Mish. High oil is deflation, high food is deflation. Everything is deflation. <G> I really liked that Mises institute stuff. Makes sense to me. Mish's stuff does not always make sense.

To: NOW who wrote (12366)	10/5/2008 8:16:17 AM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Respond to of 71479

Mish denies the US government is broke problem (John Williams stuff) even exists. It is there. It is huge. He is very arrogant toward folks reminding him of that. No, all this just can't happen, the Fed cannot screw up even further. The Fed isn't printing cause there are no coupon passes (they have other ways to print). High M3 growth is a myth. Concealed M3 is not an indicator of anything. Geez. Greenspan policies were never abandoned, even though AG left. My personal hope is that someone educated enough comes who starts fixing this stuff, restoring US manufacturing, and cutting this overextended financial credit bubble economy, which is exactly what needs to be done for balanced REAL growth. I don't know yet how to rate Ben. He knows stuff, he is quite educated. He got quite a mess on his watch. Will he cut rates this week? We'll see. Hank is a WS crook.