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Politics : Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (50432)	10/6/2008 4:38:36 PM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 224724

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Nearly six out of ten Americans believe another economic depression is likely, according to a poll released Monday. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, which surveyed more than 1,000 Americans over the weekend, cited common measures of the economic pain of the 1930s: 25% unemployment rate; widespread bank failures; and millions of Americans homeless and unable to feed their families. In response, 21% of those polled say that a depression is very likely and another 38% say it is somewhat likely. The poll also found that 29% feel a depression is not very likely, while 13% believe it is not likely at all. But economists, even many who feel current economic risks are dire, generally don't believe another depression is likely. "We've been in a recession all year and it's going to get worse," said Anirvan Banerji, director of research for the Economic Cycle Research Institute. "We're going from a relatively mild recession to a more painful recession. But we're a long, long way from a depression." A survey taken last week by the National Association of Business Economists asked members what would happen if the $700 billion bailout that passed Friday fails to fix frozen credit markets. The consensus forecast of those economists was that, even if continued problems choke off credit to businesses and consumers, unemployment would rise to just 7% in the second quarter of next year . Other economists recently contacted by CNNMoney.com said that the unemployment rate could rise as high as 10% to 12% next year if the bailout does not work. While that could be roughly double the current 6.1% unemployment rate, it would be only half of the worst rate seen in the Great Depression of the 1930s. What defines a depression? Banerji's worst-case scenario sees unemployment topping out at just under 10%. That's one of the key reasons that he thinks a true depression is unlikely. "A depression rate would imply more than doubling or tripling the current unemployment rate," he said. The Great Depression also saw the gross domestic product, the broad measure of the nation's economic activity, plunge by 13% in 1932. The NABE survey forecast that GDP will drop 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2008 if the bailout does not get credit flowing again, and another 0.5% in the first quarter of next year. The economists surveyed by CNNMoney.com said they could foresee a drop of 2% to 4% in a worst-case scenario. Part of the reason for the far less severe economic pain expected this time are the social safety net programs - including Social Security, unemployment insurance and insurance on bank deposits - that were not in place at the start of the Great Depression. And experts believe that the Federal Reserve and other officials made many policy mistakes during the Depression that are not likely to be repeated. In fact, the Fed at that time kept lending tight, while today's Fed is pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into the banking system to try to restart lending and spur economic activity. "The fact is that central banks around the globe will move heaven and earth to avoid having a depression," said Banerji. Still, other findings of the CNN poll were more in agreement with those of top economists. The poll found 84% of Americans polled believe that economic conditions are somewhat or very poor, with a majority, 53%, now believing the economy is very poor. That's not far off from the two-thirds of NABE economists who believe the economy is now in a recession or will enter one by the end of this year. The view of the economy is much bleaker than a comparable CNN/USA Today poll found during the last economic downturn at the start of the decade. During the recession of 2001, only one-third to one-half of those polled felt economic conditions were somewhat or very poor. Unemployment continued to rise after the recession ended in late 2001, and not surprisingly the view of the economy continued to deteriorate. But at its worst, in a February 2003 poll, only two-thirds of those surveyed described the economy as somewhat or very poor. Just 25% of those surveyed at that time described the economy as very poor, or less than half the level who believe that today. In addition, the CNN poll released Monday found that 36% believe the current crisis in the nation's financial sector will affect them immediately, while another 19% expect to be affected within the next year. Only 8% believe they will never be affected by the crisis. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke have frequently warned in recent weeks that the credit crisis would be felt on Main Street, not just on Wall Street. And Banerji said that the increasingly grim view of the economy will by itself lead to cutbacks in spending by both consumers and businesses. That in turn will result in greater job losses and more economic pain. "The fact that the majority of people believe we are going into a depression ensures that the recession will get worse," Banerji said. First Published: October 6, 2008: 1:18 PM ET

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (50432)	10/6/2008 4:40:53 PM
From: puborectalis	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 224724

Obama Hits McCain With Keating Five Video as Exchanges Heat Up By Julianna Goldman and Hans Nichols Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Democrat Barack Obama, after attacks on his character and past associations from John McCain's campaign, is hitting back by highlighting the Republican candidate's ties to the ``Keating Five'' savings-and-loan scandal in the 1980s. The two campaigns exchanged increasingly personal attacks leading up to tomorrow's night's debate. Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin hit Obama for his association with a former member of the Weather Underground radical group, and McCain derided him as ``a Chicago politician.'' Obama accused McCain of trying to avoid talking about the U.S. economic crisis as his campaign launched a Web site highlighting the Arizona senator's link to former savings-and- loan executive Charles Keating in the 1980s savings-and-loan industry collapse. ``The McCain campaign has tried to avoid talking about the scandal, but with so many parallels to the current crisis, McCain's Keating history is relevant and voters deserve to know the facts -- and see for themselves the pattern of poor judgment by John McCain,'' David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, wrote in an e-mail to supporters last night. With less than a month before Election Day and Obama's poll numbers rising amid the financial meltdown, both sides are seeking leverage in the political debate. The Democratic presidential candidate is trying to draw parallels between the current market turmoil and McCain's role in the savings-and-loan crisis. McCain's campaign, meanwhile, is focusing on raising questions about Obama's character. Palin Attacks Today and over the weekend, Palin repeatedly linked Obama with Bill Ayers, a former member of the Weather Underground, which carried out a series of bombings to protest the Vietnam War in the 1970s. Obama, who once served on a charity board with Ayers, has denounced the bombings. Obama ``is someone who sees America as imperfect enough to pal around with terrorists who targeted their own country,'' Palin, 44, told donors at a fundraiser Oct. 4 in Costa Mesa, California. ``This, ladies and gentleman, is not the kind of change that I think we should be believing in.'' In Albuquerque, New Mexico, today McCain said Obama ``will try to distract you from noticing that he never answers the serious and legitimate questions he has been asked.'' Obama Attacks He said Obama hasn't led any effort since he was elected to the Senate in 2006 to tighten regulations on the mortgage market that might have prevented the current financial crisis. ``Senator Obama was silent on the regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and his Democratic allies in Congress opposed every effort to rein them in,'' said McCain, 72. ``All people want to know is: What has this man ever actually accomplished in government? What does he plan for America? In short: Who is the real Barack Obama?'' McCain said to cheers from his audience. In response to Palin's attacks over the weekend, Obama's campaign directed supporters to a Web site set up by the campaign, keatingeconomics.com. It features a 13-minute documentary called ``Keating Economics: John McCain and the Making of a Financial Crisis'' produced by the campaign. Obama today refused to answer reporters' questions about the Web site. ``I cannot imagine anything more important to talk about than the economic crisis and the notion that we'd want to brush that aside and engage in the usual political shenanigans and scare tactics that have come to characterize too many political campaigns, I think is not what the American people are looking for,'' Obama, 47, said in Asheville, North Carolina. Strategy The strategy of invoking the Keating Five scandal may prove risky, as Obama's candidacy has been built around a message of hope with the promise of a different kind of politics. The documentary begins with a discussion of the word ``fraud'' followed by images of McCain being sworn in during the hearings. It connects Keating to modern scandals such as those involving Enron Corp. and Freddie Mac. McCain spokesman Brian Rogers responded by saying, ``The difference here is clear: John McCain has been open and honest about the Keating matter, and even the Democratic special counsel in charge recommended that Senator McCain be completely exonerated.'' ``By contrast, Barack Obama has been fundamentally dishonest about his friendship and work with the unrepentant terrorist William Ayers, whose radical group bombed the Pentagon and the U.S. Capitol.'' The so-called Keating Five scandal involved McCain, who was in his first term in the Senate representing Arizona, and four Democratic senators, none of whom are still in office. They faced accusations of improperly intervening with federal regulators on behalf of Keating, a former savings-and-loan executive, an Arizona businessman and campaign contributor. The Senate Ethics Committee ultimately found that McCain had ``exercised poor judgment'' and cleared him of wrongdoing.