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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito who wrote (78613)	10/7/2008 10:35:19 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 213173

Establishing (Adding To) an LT AAPL Position Hi Allen, << I congratulate you. >> Thank you. << I know that you are talking about a long-term investment. >> Yes I definitely am -- and in my world LT today is ideally 5 years and an absolute minimum of 3 years for the core part of the investment, assuming no catastrophic change in fundamentals along the way that aren't primarily related to temporary macroeconomics. << I nibbled as opposed to taking a big gulp but I have a chunk of cash and will likely add more in nibbles. I certainly will if we set another new 52 week low ... I could be wrong. But I don't think so. >> I sure hope I'm wrong but I don't think techs have bottomed, and if they haven't AAPL hasn't. I think we've seen the beginnings of the requisite capitulation for that to happen, but I don't think we've actually seen capitulation and bounces over the next few weeks are likely to be short lived bear market rallies. If the market does truly bottom, I think we need to realize that the capitulation phase will likely be followed by a significantly longer apathetic stage where we'll see more short term rallies and lots of volatility as investors test the market before we enter a sustainable Bull market. Before I pulled the trigger on yesterdays buy I reduced the share quantity of my GTC limit buy by 50%, because I think we may have (at least) one more shot at a new 52 week low in the coming weeks, and there's always time to add at a sensible price on the way up which is generally safer than attempting to catch a falling knife at a near low. We all have different investment styles, but with rare exception, I only establish or add to a position when a high quality company's stock is within 10% of a current 52 week low and ideally a multi-year low. Simply stated, while I have a good starter position, I don't yet have the AAPL position I'd like to have -- have wanted to have for some time -- so I'll be watching it closer than I have for a long time, poised to pounce, but I don't have an overly itchy trigger finger. JMHO and FWIW, Best, - Eric -