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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (40631)	10/7/2008 1:09:09 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 95623

Gas at $2.89 in NJ doesnt help either i bet. For better or worse no one talking about energy much anymore. If during the summer someone told me i would be crying for $4.50 gas and 11k dow, three months out, i would have told them they were crazy. Gas under $3 is huge tax cut. Dont fight the fed! But we are down another 200 last i looked. Feels like a bottom if only because US will lead the world out of the morass. As Bismark once said to paraphrase God loves children, drunks and the USA.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (40631)	10/7/2008 3:07:33 PM
From: Sam	3 Recommendations Respond to of 95623

First Solar, SunPower face oversupply risk Goldman Sachs downgrades solar power giants By Steve Gelsi, MarketWatch Last update: 10:12 a.m. EDT Oct. 7, 2008 Comments: 24 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs on Tuesday slapped sell ratings on the two largest publicly traded U.S. solar power firms, with the broker flagging the possibility of oversupply as overseas subsidies dry up in the face of the global economic meltdown. Goldman analyst Michael Molnar forecast "strong headwinds for valuation" as he downgraded shares of First Solar (FSLR: 131.75, -27.96, -17.5%) to conviction sell from buy and SunPower to sell from buy. Shares of First Solar fell 13.5% to $138.10. SunPower retreated 12% to $58.36. "The risk of oversupply in the solar market will soon become a reality as considerably less generous demand subsidies take hold just as a wave of supply and tight financing hit the market," Molnar said in a note to clients. "We believe that liberal subsidies of the past in markets like Germany and Spain are unlikely to be replicated in the future given fears of their ultimate cost in a bad world economy." As supply continues to come on line in a less favorable subsidy environment, prices will have to come down, putting pressure on profit margins. Goldman set a new price target of $103 a share for First Solar, well below its close of $159.71 a share on Monday. "(We) see multiples contracting as valuation implies more growth than will come even for one of the best solar companies in the world," Molnar said. SunPower's new price target is $43 a share, compared to its closing price of $66.34 on Monday. "Their installation business may perform well, but we see a consistent drag from the module business given lower industry pricing," he said. End of Story Steve Gelsi is a reporter for MarketWatch in New York. marketwatch.com. Solar shares tumble as part of a broader sell-off; some see oversupply and tough financing NEW YORK (AP) -- The rising cost of debt and potentially less generous subsidies in Europe exacerbated what had been part of a broader Wall Street sell-off for the solar sector Tuesday. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research said it was moving to a more cautious outlook on the sector. ADVERTISEMENT "The risk of oversupply in the solar market will soon become a reality as considerably less generous demand subsidies take hold just as a wave of supply and tight financing hit the market," Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. "We believe that liberal subsidies of the past in markets like Germany and Spain are unlikely to be replicated in the future given fears of their ultimate cost in a bad world economy." Hitting 52-week lows were SunPower Corp. which tumbled nearly 20 percent, or $13.13, to $53.21; Suntech Power Holdings Co., down more than 14 percent, or $4.32, at $26.26; and Ja Solar Holdings Co. which sank 20 percent, to $7.09. Goldman Sachs changed its recommendation from buy to sell on First solar and SunPower. But many industry analysts say that the recent tax extension for alternative energy companies contained in the $700 billion U.S. bailout, paired with the shock of record crude prices this summer, bode well for the industry. "Long-term solar projects need debt and equity so with the cost of money going up, there is going to be a reduced return on projects," said Robert W. Stone, an analyst with Cowen and Co. "But with the global economy being what it is, it's still going to look like a pretty good investment comparatively, even if these turn into single-digit returns compared with what might have been a double-digit return in the past." biz.yahoo.com