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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (66468)	10/7/2008 5:27:05 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 118717

Yes, I think that fear will be the dominant motif for a while. It's a good time for careful value buyers to start building a foundation for where we want to be down the line. But I'd much rather be careful about what I buy now than eager to catch the perfect bottom.

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (66468)	10/7/2008 6:43:21 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 118717

"We may miss 10-20%" Staying in cash, not buying now surely seems the way to go now. And if the trade off is that the market turns and somebody misses the first 10-20%, that seems like a reasonable price to pay. It's not going to be such an easy thing though, imo. The thing is so many stocks now routinely have large interday moves. COP for example, today between 60-67, CHK 22-27 roughly, or say NBG 6.16-8.05 within two days. My opinion is that since so many, many stocks fluctuate like this, it's not possible at the time to know when the bottom is in. If xyz stock moves up 20% from its low point, and that's a stock of interest, and there's no specific news on the stock - rather just a movement because the DOW and other stocks are up - then one does not know and has very little confidence that the bottom was reached and that the stock will not move quickly back down like it and others seem to be doing. My opinion is that if someone is expecting to buy at bottom + 20%, one won't know the bottom is in until after a much larger and sustainable rise, maybe 30-40%. In this type of market anyway, where volatility is rampant.