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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Travis_Bickle who wrote (155295)	10/8/2008 12:26:44 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

From the Russian news service no less. PRAVDA. Investor Jim Rogers predicts lost decade to USA 06.10.2008 Source: Pravda.Ru english.pravda.ru Jim Rogers, a renowned global investor, criticizes the plans to support bankrupt banks and described the events happening currently in Washington and New York as an ill omen for not only the USA alone, but for the whole world. One should clean the financial system, and not look for any ways of how to support it further, the specialist said in a recent interview with Handelsblatt. If issuing banks and finance ministers are exhausted after the collection of the huge emergency package, the markets will face even bigger problems next year, Rogers believes. The investor said that it could be a good opportunity to let all investment banks, which were previously well-managed but had no respect to banking business principles, go bankrupt. Those banks had the whole world involved in the current crisis, Rogers said. It will take America a lot of time to overcome the consequences of the crisis, the expert added. Jim Rogers compared the current state of affairs with Japan of the 1980s – this time period is known in the history of Japan as “the lost decade.” Russia and South Korea had a different reaction to the crises of the 1990s and let ill companies go bankrupt, which cleared the markets and helped the economies of the two countries recover completely and grow. Jim Rogers also said that he had enlarged the number of his shares on the Chinese market because the Chinese economy would be growing during the upcoming years. lot of banks won't survive the next year of upheaval despite the U.S. government's $700 billion plan to restore order to the financial industry. The biggest question is how many will perish and how they will be put out of their misery _ in outright closures by regulators scrambling to preserve the dwindling deposit insurance fund or in fire sales made under government pressure. Enfeebled by huge losses on risky home loans, the banking industry is now on the shakiest ground since the early 1990s, when more than 800 federally insured institutions failed in a three-year period. That was during the clean-up phase of a decade-long savings-and-loan meltdown that wound up costing U.S. taxpayers $170 billion to $205 billion, after adjusting for inflation. The government's commitment to spend up to $700 billion buying bad debts from ailing banks is likely to save some institutions that would have otherwise died, but analysts doubt it will be enough to avert a major shakeout.

To: Travis_Bickle who wrote (155295)	10/8/2008 12:27:43 PM
From: The Reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

When you've got such a large name doing a huge secondary, if the syndicate can't hold the price it's curtains. Also it's no coincidence they are doing it today in front of the short sale rule expiring. Usually there is a lot of short sale activity to hedge off the purchasing. That's making it easier for MER to defend the price of BAC.

To: Travis_Bickle who wrote (155295)	10/8/2008 12:33:54 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Downbeat news from JPMorgan: Florida homes could nearly halve in value No way to sugar coat this. blogs.tampabay.com In a presentation to investors in late September, JPMorgan Chase & Co., hot off of announcing its purchase of Washington Mutual Bank, predicted Florida home prices would fall another 16 percent. It could get even worse. In the event of what it called a "deeper recession," the bank projected Florida prices falling another 21 percent. A "severe recession" could bring prices crashing a further 36 percent. JPMorgan assumes Florida prices have fallen 28 percent, which corresponds to what most home price indices say. So the bank is betting on a peak-to-trough decline of 44 percent in Florida (the 28 percent drop we've already experienced + another 16 percent). How rotten is this news? Consider this: JPMorgan predicts further home price drops of 10 percent in California and 8 percent nationally. So our decline could be twice as bad as the nation's and 60 percent worse than California's. Worse than California. I promised I wouldn't sugar coat the news, but I fibbed. Northern Florida is experiencing the worst home price plunges these days, so the depreciation could disproportionately affect communities like Ocala, Gainesville, Pensacola and Tallahassee. Feel better? Probably not. (Thanks to SoldierRenter for the JPMorgan tip) Posted by James Thorner at 5:39:36 PM on October 6, 2008 in \| Permalink Comments please tell the city/county governments this, my house taxes STILL went UP 17% this year! Posted by: cedric h. \| October 07, 2008 at 10:52 AM Great! So why are they're executives getting so many tax breaks again? They're not helping our economy by having these meetings and guessing where prices will go. They're also the ones that came up with gambilng on bonds, shared derivatives, told the Fed and State they didn't need any regulation, and then blew up the entire finacial system. I bet if we tax them a little more, they'll find better things to do with their time rather than fan the fire. Posted by: Snoz \| October 07, 2008 at 12:19 PM So the bank is betting on a peak-to-trough decline of 44 percent in Florida (the 28 percent drop we've already experienced + another 16 percent). Surprise, hardly as the indicators have been pointing at this for some time. Me thinks the drop will be about another 20% partly due to the current inventory which includes the "hidden inventory" so many deny exists, the credit crunch and the current state of the economy in the Tampa Bay region. However, the 16% decline will bring home values back in-line with incomes for the Tampa Bay area. Posted by: Fuzzy Bear \| October 07, 2008 at 12:41 PM Unless I am reading your posts wrong, 28% drop already occurred, plus 16% drop expected, equals a 39.5% drop total overall. The key here is that it is a 16% drop from current levels, not a 16% drop from the original highs. 0.72*0.84 = 0.6048, or a drop of 39.52% from the highs. Posted by: spackle \| October 07, 2008 at 11:55 PM Just when you think bottom is around the corner. I just can't decide which condo tower to jump off. I mean there are so many to choose from. There's that great half finished condo tower downtown Orlando with the crane on the roof. I think perhaps that's the one. Or maybe I should drive to Tampa or something more exotic in Miami?? Posted by: Marcus \| October 08, 2008 at 08:10 AM I totally agree, a 50% drop is going to be realized, and then some. However, if prices have fallen that far in Florida will somebody please tell the folks who are trying to sell their properties? The MLS and FSBO listings are filled with the same overpriced stuff we've been seeing for two years now. It's like sellers in Florida are in a state of denial, playing some huge poker game and chasing the pot while holding nothing. BUYERS BE SMART - use public records before you decide what to offer on a piece of property - stainless and granite does not mean the property is worth twice what the owner paid for it. Posted by: Val Orlando \| October 08, 2008 at 08:47 AM I totally agree, a 50% drop is going to be realized, and then some. However, if prices have fallen that far in Florida will somebody please tell the folks who are trying to sell their properties? The MLS and FSBO listings are filled with the same overpriced stuff we've been seeing for two years now. It's like sellers in Florida are in a state of denial, playing some huge poker game and chasing the pot while holding nothing. BUYERS BE SMART - use public records before you decide what to offer on a piece of property - stainless and granite does not mean the property is worth twice what the owner paid for it. Posted by: Val Orlando \| October 08, 2008 at 08:47 AM It's like sellers in Florida are in a state of denial, It is my belief that the consumer has been in the state of denial. The next stage is acceptance that property values have dropped and that the consumer selling the property must bring the property in-line with current market values. Posted by: Fuzzy Bear \| October 08, 2008 at 08:56 AM