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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2851)	10/21/1997 1:56:00 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 10921

Brian, I'm marginally bullish at current levels. Bearish case (short term) is that these stocks have come very far very fast and sales visibility for '98 is murky (at least until JM lets us know at AMAT cc next month). Wafer transition issue further muddies the water. As someone above said, nobody wants to buy the last 200mm fab or the first 300mm fab. Guess they have no real choice, however, since nobody has yet stepped up to the plate to champion 300mm. I bought AMAT and KLAC last week. And bought TSM today. I like the fabless/foundry model and TSMC is most efficient I have heard. And with Taiwan dollar depreciating, TSM should mint money IMO. All bets off if SE Asia crashes! <g> SC

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2851)	10/21/1997 2:04:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Brian, The "bearish scenario" is that the semi-equips will not meet their 98 forcasted EPS numbers because sales will be slower than expected. The "gremlins" responsible are DRAM prices, the 300mm transition, and concern about the level of chip manufacturers growth in 98. In the First Boston downgrade of AMAT yesterday, they forecasted an 8% semi-equip industry growth rate which is in contrast with the current concensus of 15-20%. The "bearish scenario" has been aided by the high valuations accorded many of the semi-equips during this 97 runup. Hopefully, the fears for next year will turn out to be exaggerated, and this correction will set the stage for another move up. I don't know what 98 will look like, so I have advised that investors wait for the AMAT CC for guidance. Cary

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2851)	10/21/1997 4:25:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 10921

RE: "To put it mildly, I am confused as to the market's treatment of the semi-equips recently. Some of the recent news: [ALL GOOD NEWS]" Perhaps it is another case of the rule "buy on the rumor, sell on the news?" The semi-equip stock prices ran up significantly from their lows over the last few months. Maybe the "news" items that you listed were already discounted in the stock price. The market is now trying to project what the news will be six months from now. Who knows. I2