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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (12710)	10/8/2008 10:22:16 PM
From: TH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71452

Vi, Risk for the toxic trash is unknown, and as every good director knows, the monster you can't see is the most scary one. We get a relief rally. Might even extend to the bonus season <g> Then more down. Like Box said, earnings are not yet gamed for a real recession, so 4-6 quarters of revised expectations ahead. Plenty o'trading opportunities. Jesse really gets it. Pay em back at 70 cents on the dollar and just move the stick and revalue housing. Great plan Washington wizards <ng> jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com GT TH

To: Real Man who wrote (12710)	10/8/2008 10:43:55 PM
From: axial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71452

How does the shadow banking system factor into the current crisis? I don't see it discussed much. How much is moving through conduits, and not being accounted for? I know we get figures for notional value of global derivatives, but nobody claims those figures are all-inclusive. I haven't seen any economic theories/models incorporating "shadow" banking systems. The convention is: there's a banking system, not two parallel systems, one of which is unregulated, and "unofficial". If $10 or $20 trillion is moving in and among shadow banks, would we know? Is it being factored in? Currently there are many unknowns; shadow banking is just one more. Nobody likes conspiracy theories and unprovable "magic" explanations; still, I can't shake the idea that shadow banking may be more important than realized.

To: Real Man who wrote (12710)	10/8/2008 10:45:16 PM
From: Don Earl	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71452

RE: "I am in panic. Visions of great depression and stuff. That too means bottom. When panic hit the market in 1929, and the market crashed, it was over two years before the market hit bottom. When you see the number of people standing in line for a bowl of soup start to decrease, the bottom should be fairly close. RE: "Technicals suggest a bottom to be made shortly if not already." A bottom and a dead cat bounce are not the same thing. At the same time, dead cat bounces are usually caused by short players taking profits. With the recent short ban, there may not be many traders with a good reason to buy stock other than a compulsive need to lose money.