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Politics : Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nigel bates who wrote (50921)	10/9/2008 5:25:09 PM
From: longnshort	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 224729

Lastly, the Rasmussen poll shows that Obama is leading McCain among likely voters nationwide by a margin of 51% to 45%, with 4% undecided. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2 points. A-ha! Obama definitely is winning according to this poll (that is, assuming the undecided voters do not "break" for McCain). But there is something curious about this poll, which relates to the second issue I raised above about polls. This poll "weighted" its responses to reflect a predicted voting population of 39.3% Democrats, 33.3% Republicans, and 27.4% unaffiliated. However, in the last presidential election, just four years ago, the party affiliation of actual voters (according to the CNN exit poll) was 37% Democrat and 37% Republican. Perhaps Democrats are going to "out vote" Republicans by 6 points this year, but I think this is a very dubious assumption. In any event, there is no reason to accept the results of the Rasmussen poll over those of the other two polls (or over the results of many other polls I could have examined).