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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (424282)	10/9/2008 7:15:51 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1578564

You and CJ used to discuss how it looked like we were heading for stagflation. But now it looks like we are heading for some serious deflation where prices on everything from commodities to bonds to houses to stocks collapse. I guess than cash will be king. From my viewpoint, it looks like the market is pricing a very, very severe recession... maybe a depression (I don't know what the technical difference is). That why the commodities are so bad. What's the saying.......the markets have called for ten of the last two recessions. People forget the markets are based a lot on psychology and human psychology can be wrong more than it is right esp. when fear takes over. I am not saying that the economy is in great shape.....it isn't. However, I don't think this selling is necessarily an accurate gauge of how bad it is. A lot of the selling is related to hedge funds having to make redemptions. That process has become problematical because they so leveraged themselves to the oil and commodities markets which have been hurt badly by China's 100% withdrawal from those markets. That voracious selling has begotten more selling like so many dominoes in a row. Its just like what happened after the tech bust back in 2001 but much worse. Making matters worse, the shorts are acting like tigers on the prowl.....looking for weakened animals [stocks] which they go after and bring down. Cramer calls it kesselschlacht which is the German word for encircle and annihilate. They went after your bank today. At one point, STI was down $9 for no apparent reason. Certainly, the energy stocks have been so decimated their extinction seems eminent. So in my mind its real hard to gauge exactly how bad it really is. It could be disasterous or like you said before......a great buying opp. Time will tell. Things must be even worse than we 'civilians' can see... the real money people are going to anything they perceive to be safe. I think this thing is so complicated that even the most seasoned market players don't understand completely what's happening. I think that's why they are so scared.