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To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (22558)	10/21/1997 3:10:00 PM
From: ratan lal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Sridhar << Conveniently for him, at this point, the action in the stock seems to reflect the general pessimism about the glut in DRAMs >> Do you believe that investors go thru Complex models before investing. Skeeter has more info and analysis than most investors. <<< skeeter's simple model>> And if you do have a complex model, perhaps you could share it with us. Ratan

To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (22558)	10/21/1997 4:39:00 PM
From: Peter Shaw	Respond to of 53903

SS, The Mu outlook is indeed complex, but I see no facet which warrants a bullish stance at this point with the exception of operational efficiency. Of course, that is being impacted over the next few quarters by admission of management. All that debt doesn't help the bottom line either, and if it ends up being used for operations rather than infrastructural investment... Good Luck, Peter Shaw

To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (22558)	10/21/1997 7:14:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

>>skeeter's simple model (in the absence of anything more concrete longterm)<< sridhar, first, don't confuse your inability to comprehend what i'm saying with a defect in my analysis. i suppose that your sentiments that "nobody cares about earnings this q" and "nobody would pay $50+ for mu with real money if everything wasn't going well" is what you define as "analysis." the reason i focussed so much on short term pricing is b/c tk and kippy were misleading everyone and the current dram pricing PROVED THAT THEY WEREN'T BEING ACCURATE and provided you an opportunity to not take a 30-45% haircut in a few months. mu at $60 didn't account for lowering dram prices. that was my point. as for long term outlook: it was terrinle at when dram was 48.50. it was terrible at $7. it was terrible at $6. it is terrible at $4. the companies bought that demand will be strong crap, just like the investment analists and the investment community, and KEPT BUILDING INTO A HUGE AND MASSIVE GLUT. it is not easy to stop building multibillion dollar fabs once started. taiwan views dram as a jobs program and is spending $60 billion this year on equipment and plants. IF THEY LOSE MONEY THEY RAISE TAXES. TOSHIBA IS A MONSTER. HITACHI IS A MONSTER. THEY DON'T QUITE. NOW THE CHINESE ARE JUMPING ON BOARD PER JERRY. i said dram pricing would tank and it has - beyond even my expectations to date. i say it will continue tanking. 64 MB CHIPS WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE SUPPLY EVEN MORE!!!! <blink>THIS DRIVES THE PRICE DOWN LONGER TERM, NOT JUST THIS Q, AND WHAT IS THE BEST WAY TO REDUCE COSTS? INCREASE OUTPUT!!!!<blink> WHAT DOES THAT DO TO PRICING LONGER TERM? WHAT DOES SUPPLY DO WHEN IT OVERWHELMS DEMAND? sure, this is pretty basic stuff that people ignore as irrelevent in a tech bubble. just b/c i focus on one thing to prove the "gurus' wrong doesn't mean you can infer there is nothing else. btw, what faltered in your analysis that nobody cared about the last q's eps? if this is analysis then you are right, i don't have any analysis.