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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (41112)	10/11/2008 4:17:38 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 217862

Good explanation about sunspots cycles intellicast.com

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (41112)	10/11/2008 4:42:22 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217862

<<in which currency are you calculating? are you taking into account interest payments or the discount on forwards? what would be the ratio between currencies (all eaqual I assume) and hedging policies on each position?>> ... usd base currency, even spread, no accounting for interest, no hedge, which would eat up interest; just plain calc, because all fiddling with 3-6 months t-bills and what not at most generated 2% per annum, and recently much less. <<as to your gold calculation>> ... just using gld as benchmark, ignoring the last $ 50 drop, because it will be erased in short order. <<“buy diamonds”>> ...not liquid enough, too subjective, and cannot incorporate into financial a/c even in hk <<In my opinion it would be much more profitable to identify which tradable asset would be best in those times posed by extreme panic - and to this at the moment I do not have an answer>> ... gold outperformed mix of cash, and any moving between the flavors of cash more than likely generated a loss. <<I am plenty frustrated ...>> ... we all are, because nothing works as the machinery melts. <<Buying the JPY and / or Swissy is out of question as this trade is well overcrowded now and soon will pay negative interest as in the past!!>> ... i agree. i in fact am out of yen, sgd, thb. slight profit because i had more yen than i had sgd and thb. <<Also contemplating to re-enter the commodities asset class>> ... i started to on thursday night, and had my fingers handed to me. ... btw, i really do not like australia now. between deficits, housing, and possibly sustained drooping of commodities, its currency and assets are at second epicenter of the ellipsoid of collapse. <<As to gold I am still not sold on buying it because of its failure to react to both anticipated super inflation and market panic>> ... when it reacts, too late. must position in gold, and then keep the gold faith. just like any currency. it is simply the 'best' currency. <<As to the USD after all panic selling will subside and market participants will recognize that US import will fall not because higher productivity in the US but the deep recession, the USD may head south into a hurry baffling every one on the planet as no one would dear buying again US debt for several years>> ... i agree. devaluation must be, but i am not at all sure what the new monetary regime will look like after reset, iteration #1.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (41112)	10/11/2008 5:13:06 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217862

just in in-tray Thanks for email Most of my reserves (just over my share as per your calc below) are secure in larger denominations in various vaults and safes (problem with footloose traveller lifestyle, I realized that need to keep a certain minimum in each location as does not do much good if 10000 miles away ) Best part of life is that there is always a seller when there is buyer. So as hedge funds dump, there are some individuals buying large volumes of gold. I suspect that the swiss banks are making a nice fee on the vault storage maybe we should have bought some old nuclear bomb shelters. My private banker, who sits in small group in zurick - the uber private bankers- handles abt 7 bill (now 5 bill) for wealthy families all over world. I asked what percentage of investors in gold , he said abt 33, and of his net assets under mgmt how much was gold, a suprising 20 percent. So some are that near 100 percent that you strive to convince yourself. Has been amazing to watch destruction of wealth worldwide . But as I mentioned to someone ,it is all relative. If we all loose 20 percent , still have same relative economic purchasing power to rest of world , just need to wait foir everything else to correct in price. I fall in same camp as you , my single largest hit to my portfolio , has been the diversification of my currency exposure ( I just could not stay concentrated in usd , but it would have been the best thing) But this can quickly reverse (so I hope). Anyways as I sit in the provence countryside , there is little discussion or thought of these far away events. Locals are going about their business as usual , picking the grapes to make rose that they sell at anywhere from 3-10 euro per litre. Yes everyone here has made a small fortune selling their land to sun starved northerners, who in turn have mortgaged their first residence on the boom at home whether it be london, copenhagen, or hk. But to the locals , well it was luck that brought the money to begin with and I believe that most have simply stuffed it under the bed (I am sure there is still large sums of gold and francs hidden , long forotten) will read the books. And think to increase my exposure to gold beyond current (10 percent physical , 5 percent gdx ). And for the small denomination gold, it makes wonderful presents as one tries to convince their loved ones and friends to unload equities , usd etc and buy some of these wonderfully heavy, seductive coins. !