55% Expect Obama Victory, Only 15% Believe McCain Will Win
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters now expect Barack Obama to win the election in November and become the 44th President of the United States. Just 15% expect a McCain victory while 27% say the race is too close to call (see crosstabs).
This data provides another measure of just how much the Wall Street crisis has changed the underlying dynamic of the Presidential race.
In mid-September, just before the economic meltdown became public, voters were evenly divided as to who they thought would win. At that time, 35% expected McCain to win and 34% expected an Obama victory. In August, before the two parties held their conventions, 46% expected an Obama victory versus 28% who thought the Republican would win (see trends).
The new survey also found that 34% of voters say the election will be exciting, down from 45% in mid-September. GOP voters are more excited about the election now than Democrats.
Forty-two percent (42%) of Obama supporters now say it will be exciting while just 25% of McCain voters say the same. A month ago, McCain voters were more likely to say that the election was exciting.
Overall, 13% of voters now expect the Obama-McCain campaign to be boring, up from 9% in August. Fifty-one percent (51%) say it is somewhere in between boring and exciting.
Over the past few weeks, Obama has opened a stable lead in both the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and Electoral College projections. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is given a 78.1 % chance of winning the White House. Market results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your insights.
Victory expectations are strongly aligned with preferences. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Obama supporters think their candidate will win and another 15% believe it is too close to call. Only 31% of McCain supporters are optimistic about prospects for their candidate. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of McCain supporters think Obama will win and 40% believe it is too close to call.
Overall, 13% of voters expect an Obama landslide while only 2% expect a similar victory for McCain.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of all voters say they’re talking about the campaign an hour or more each day. Twenty-four percent (24%) say they’re either not discussing it or spend less than 15 minutes a day on the discussion.
This week, Rasmussen Reports released polling data for South Dakota, Nevada, Missouri, Washington, Alaska, Michigan, Montana, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Idaho, New Mexico and North Dakota. Premium Members see demographic crosstabs for all state polling data. Learn More.
Currently, Obama has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 248-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.
Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin |
