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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (40822)	10/11/2008 4:30:41 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95567

This is an update of a previous table for the SOX that compares the values of the "peak" last July to the values at yesterday's close. First of all, let's take a look at the prices. The percent losses are staggering. At the bottom line the index is down 54.2 percent. Of course, several stocks are below this value. Three stocks are down over 60 percent and 4 stocks are down over 70 percent. The major indices are all down in the minus 40 percent region. In comparing "next year earnings" and "long term growth", several of the stocks have better numbers than they had last July. These numbers are highlighted in green. Numbers that are less than last July are highlighted in red. No matter of course that the numbers of a few stocks are better than last July, they have gone down with all the other stocks as well. Looking at some of the numbers in detail, only 4 stocks have higher PEG numbers now than last July. These PEGs are highlighted in red. Two of those stocks are AMAT and NVLS. One stock, NSM, has greater estimates for both "next year earnings" and "long term growth". This has driven the PEG number from last year of 1.36 down to 0.61. No matter, NSM share price is down 50.9 percent from last July. MRVL has shown a nice estimate increase in "next year earnings" from 0.76 to 1.09, the "long term growth" estimate has held up fairly well only going from 23 to 20 which now gives a PEG of 0.33 compared to last year's PEG of 1.10. Even with the tremendous losses in share price for all stocks, at the bottom line, PEG is now 0.88 compared to 1.29 last year. One last comment. AMAT and NVLS both have higher PEGs now than they did last year even though their stocks prices have gone down a lot. Both "next year earnings" and "long term growth" are down a large amount compared to last year.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (40822)	10/11/2008 7:15:38 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95567

Hi RtS, and Don, Many on ythe EW threads call this the wave 3 or recognition wave.Surely after this last week most or all understand this to be a bear market. The worst of a bear is the 3 wave.The oversold bounce that results is a wave 5 and the final bottom is a wave 5. The greatest impact of this will be exerted on the stocks that had the greatest run up over the last several years:energy,oil,yes home builders remember,industrial manufacturers. Im hopeful in this wave 4 we see tech get traction. In a wave 5 down the rotation to a new sector can actually be very rewarding. Remember that tech took off in October of 98 and yet the major market indices declined all through the run up going back to the general market top of September 97. We are hoing for the last act in this 2003-2003 rally to new highs. Since both new highs were made in the Dow and the S&P while the NAZ lagged badly - I hope to see a marginal out performance from the NAZ with tech and maybe medical equipment out performing. BWDIK Bob