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Biotech / Medical : Biomatrix (BXM) Looking Great -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Lazare who wrote (139)	10/21/1997 5:08:00 PM
From: chirodoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 569

<<<<<<<57% increase on a small revenue is not significant. how can you say that? a 50% increase in sales for the next few years would be spectacular, don't you think? how many companies show this kind of growth? what am i missing?

To: Dan Lazare who wrote (139)	10/21/1997 7:23:00 PM
From: John McCarthy	Respond to of 569

Dan, I understand your point. But BIOX's results were right on target. Below is a side-by-side: Actual 3rd Qtr VERSUS Post #97 or #98 which is dated Sept. 27th. (millions) Sept 27th Post Actual Est. 3rd 3rd Qtr. Qtr. ----- ---- Licenses Fees: Bayer -0- -0- Wyeth-Ayerst 12.1 12.0 ----- ---- Total License Fees 12.1 12.0 Product Net Sales 1.8 2.0 ----- ---- Total Revenue 13.9 14.0 ----- ---- COGS 0.6 0.7 R&D 1.5 1.5 G&A 2.0 2.0 ----- --- Total Costs 4.1 4.2 ----- --- Operating Earnings 9.8 9.8 ----- --- Other Inc. .2 .2 ----- --- EBT 10.0 10.0 ----- --- Inc. Tax Prov. .3 -0- ----- --- EAT 9.8 10.0 ----- ---- ----- ---- E.P.S .85 .89 ----- ---- The missing 4 cents is due to the Tax Provision and more shares outstanding vs. the estimate. Revenues ------------ The dollar amount of shipments are small. This will change in the 4th qtr. My bet: (a) Another $2.0 mil. to parts of the world and (b) $5.0 mil. to AHP-USA. The $5.0 mil. is not a BIOX or demand limitation. I'm guessing it is what AHP could handle coming out of the gate. Using 4th qtr . revenues of $7.0 mil. works out to $0.10 for the qtr. and $1.31 for the year. At a PE of 30 thats $39.00 share. Next year the real fun begins. There are some prior posts from me that speculate about next year. Several people are concerned about cost. I see it exactly opposite. At (I'm guessing) a $1,000 a year, people are not going to have any problem spending for this and thats w/wo any outside health plan. Regards, John McCarthy

To: Dan Lazare who wrote (139)	10/22/1997 5:29:00 AM
From: James Baker	Respond to of 569

DL: <<57% increase on a small revenue is not significant>> Dan, I think that this is good progress even if it is from a small base. I think there are only about 4 countries now using Synvisc and any NEW treatment like this does take time for both physicians and patients to get a good feeling about. US FDA approval is the final step in the true launch for Synvisc (as it will be for Hylaform as well). Just the size of our population and expectation for improved health will make this product soar. OK W/A get out there and make this product available! Jim