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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (41197)	10/12/2008 9:43:57 AM
From: carranza2	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217750

I think that depending too much on history as a guide is risky. The writer has found many seemingly good parallels but does not consider what has taken place since the early '70s which we have now. Examples: no CDS in the '70s, no debt of then magnitude we have now, no globalization, no credit freeze, no subprime, etc. OK, there was the oil shock, there was Watergate, Vietnam, etc., but in terms of economic magnitude, I think present conditions are much more challenging and difficult. I find it very unusual that the Gs, 20 and 7, haven't spoken yet. Asian markets open in just a few hours.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (41197)	10/12/2008 10:39:02 AM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 217750

I've got to challenge the writer's good news thesis. In my estimation market indices are going to go down over the course of the next year because we will inevitably be subject to a recurring stream of ugly news on macro and fundamentals. We have a credit crash now, but its consequences IMO have not yet been fully felt in terms of unemployment, prices, growth, etc. And since it will be globalized, all indices will suffer. It will take time for more bad news to be felt in the markets, but it will be felt over the course of the next few months. That's when a bottom will be made. Folks who buy today or tomorrow or even next week might get burned. And I'd like to congratulate a poster whose name escapes me who brought up velocity of money as a forgotten component of inflation. He was dead bang on correct. As the slow down progresses, velocity will decrease thereby easing inflationary pressures. Bernanke will continue to fight possible deflation depending on how severe the slow down becomes. Cash, gold, Treasuries, Yen.......stay away from equities for the time being. The temptation will be strong, resist the Dark Side.